Democratic Early Primary Voters Describe Ideal Nominee

Majorities of likely Democratic voters in three states with early primaries or caucuses say they prefer a presidential nominee who supported military action against Iraq but criticized President Bush for failing to assemble international support over a candidate who opposed military action from the beginning, according to new polls conducted by the liberal Democracy Corps.

Democrats surveyed in the three states also listed foreign policy and national security experience as the most important attribute they are looking for in selecting a nominee. They rated that characteristic over such other choices as experience in Congress, being a decorated combat veteran, being a Washington outsider or having a blue-collar background.

Democratic voters in the three states are divided over their choices for the nomination. In Iowa, Rep. Richard A. Gephardt (Mo.) and former Vermont governor Howard Dean were running roughly even with each other (27 percent to 26 percent). Sen. John F. Kerry (Mass.) was the only other Democrat to hit double digits in that state (16 percent).

In New Hampshire, Dean held a solid lead over Kerry (38 percent to 21 percent), with retired Gen. Wesley K. Clark the only other Democrat in double digits (11 percent). In South Carolina, Sen. John Edwards (N.C.) registered 14 percent, but with five other Democrats between 10 percent and 13 percent, the race there appears mostly unformed.

In all three states, likely Democratic voters said they preferred a nominee who supports the party's core values and stands up to Bush rather than one who appeals more broadly to independents. Asked whether it was more important to nominate a candidate who stands up for Democratic Party values or one who has the best chance of defeating Bush, Iowa and New Hampshire Democratic voters said electability was more important.

In South Carolina, where African American voters make up more than 40 percent of the likely primary electorate, voters narrowly favored someone who stands up for the party's core issues.


EL - Is Carville and Democracy Corps lining up behind Clark? No, the Washington Post is. A closer read of the latest Democracy Corps documents reveals strong support for a core element of Dean's appeal - a need for fiscal discipline to support the social programs the vast majority of American people support.

Democracy Corps - The Core Message Now - pdf

President Bush is overwhelmed by the problems facing the country -
employment and the economy, Iraq, and the budget deficits. The
problems grow out of control, yet he has no plan for expanding em-
ployment and no plan for post-war Iraq or the growing budget mess.
Failing to win international support, he wants $87 billion from US
taxpayers for Iraq, but with exploding deficits, that means cuts in
spending for education and health care and a lack of funds for Social
Security.

The New Moment National Priorities Memo - pdf

The President's request for an another $87 billion for Iraq, in addition to the $79
billion already approved by Congress earlier this year, comes just a few weeks after the
Congressional Budget Office announced that next year's budget deficit would be at least
$480 billion. In fact, according to the Administration's own budget projections, the
deficit for next year alone will be $525 to $535 billion including the funding for Iraq.
Independent organizations point out that even these estimates depend on overly
optimistic growth forecasts, and the Administration's track record of rosy budget
projections tends to confirm that criticism. These deficits are the starkest budget
turnarounds in American history. In fact, the $5.6 trillion surplus once projected through
2011 is now a $2.3 trillion cumulative deficit under the best-case predictions.

On taxes, the Republicans are now barely trusted more than the Democrats and
support for the President's tax cut plan dropped from 51 to 44 percent over the summer,
despite the intervening tax cuts and rebate checks.

The deficits are now central to the progressive narrative because Americans have
been educated in 50 state budget battles on the meaning of out of control deficits. The
open-ended Iraq spending and the tax cuts come right out of essential services and
programs important to people's lives. The debate about deficits is about priorities, and
right now, they do not trust the conservative direction of the country.

What bothers voters the most about the exploding deficits, according to the
Democracy Corps poll, are 1) government not able to afford spending for education,
health and other areas and 2) Social Security lacking the funds it needs. The former is the
runaway reason for those under 40 years of age and the latter, for those over 50 years.
The deficit debate is about saving spending for education and health care and for saving
Social Security. Those are progressive priorities and voters trust us on these.