Common Dreams Guardian -- Ready for Battle

As a low, dishonest year nears its end, the online magazine Slate is running a daily Saddameter, complete with witty commentary, assessing the chances of a war with Iraq. In the past week it has shot up from just over 50% to 67%. Yet I don't know anyone in Washington who hasn't felt for some time that the odds were more like 80-90%.

The signs that al-Qaida and its allies across the world - in places as obvious as the Middle East, as remote as Australia and eastern Paraguay - are regrouping, and preparing for new attacks is overwhelming. So are the indications that they are assisted by the way the US diverted so many resources into an entirely different conflict and tossed away global goodwill in the process.

There is no obvious explanation for the US allowing its own agenda to be hijacked in this fashion by a notion that a year ago had minimal support from anyone without a government job or a column in the Washington Post. Oil is one factor, for sure, though I do not accept the theory that is at the heart of some American masterplan. Rather, it is true that an administration run by oilmen undoubtedly has different perceptions from any other. I certainly don't believe that's the whole story.

In general, people have two perceptions of the Bushies: that they are strong, patriotic and fearless defenders of freedom, or that they are dangerous warmongers. There is a third possibility, which has been under-considered: that they are, quite simply, blunderers.