Democrats sense opportunity in '04

According to a survey by Ipsos and the Cook Political Report, only 40 percent of respondents said they would definitely vote to re-elect Mr. Bush, and 44 percent said the Bush administration exaggerated evidence about Iraqi weapons of mass destruction.

But 54 percent approved of Mr. Bush's performance overall, according to the poll, which had an error margin of plus or minus 2.2 percentage points.

In an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, Mr. Bush drew 45 percent to 36 percent for a generic Democrat, though he beat Mr. Dean, Mr. Lieberman, and Mr. Kerry by at least 15 points each. The error margin is plus or minus 3 percentage points.

The fragmented Democratic opposition is helping Mr. Bush, analysts said, at least for now. But when the Democratic field eventually narrows to a single candidate, the race will be reshaped.

"It's getting back to reality," said Erik Smith, a spokesman for Mr. Gephardt. "Once you have one nominee head to head with Bush, it'll even up even more. We're a 50-50 country."