Carville: Kerry needs big win

CARVILLE: I've been talking to these campaigns. I spent a lot of time with the [John] Edwards people last night. One of the key numbers we want to look for tonight is 35 [percent]. The further [John] Kerry falls below 35 [percent], I think the worse news it is for him. The more he rises above 35 [percent], the better the news is for him.

We tend to focus on what's happened behind the front-runner, and that's fine, but come next Tuesday we are going to start counting delegates, and somebody other than Kerry's got to win some primaries, and the road to winning primaries next Tuesday is to do well in New Hampshire tonight. So this is a big event.

HEMMER: How many will drop out tomorrow?

CARVILLE: I think of the big five, two will be gone tomorrow. Whether they drop out -- whether you drop out or not doesn't matter -- but if two people finish far behind here, it's going to be pretty hard for them to raise money; it's going to be hard for their supporters to stay with them.