Who has the "Big Mo' in NH?

The UK Perspective - Howard Dean now enters New Hampshire as the man who lost his "big mo" to John Kerry. Mr Kerry has the "big mo" and is now expected to capitalise on it but, after the last time, no one is trying to be too certain about anything.

The most you can say is that a repeat of Mr Dean's Iowa performance will probably prove fatal to his campaign. But his position has been strengthening as aides have worked to reverse some of the damage done by the "I have a scream" speech. In the latest polls he is three points behind Mr Kerry.

The other two candidates to watch are John Edwards and Wesley Clark, the retired general. Neither is expected to win but, as southerners, they will be looking to get some backing for the February 3 ballots when the race moves to what is more like their home turf as South Carolina, Oklahoma, New Mexico and Arizona vote.

New Hampshire gives hopefuls a relatively inconsequential number of votes in the Democratic conference that elects a candidate but their relative positions will in many ways determine who campaigns in the south as the leading southerner. As every Democratic president since Lyndon Johnson has been from the south and carried a substantial southern vote, this is an important claim to put before Democrats in the big later-voting states such as New York and California.