USATODAY.com - Dems riding wave to statehouses

Even as opinion polls tighten in the days before Nov. 5, Democrats hold leads of two to 20 percentage points in key states. They are favored to win Illinois, Michigan and Pennsylvania, and could win Wisconsin, Arizona and Massachusetts. California Democrat Gray Davis is headed for re-election. Republicans are likely to hold Texas, Florida and New York. But their pickups may be limited to smaller states, such as New Hampshire and maybe Hawaii.

States to watch

Thirty-six states will elect governors on Nov. 5. Twenty-three of them have Republican governors now, 11 have Democratic governors, and two have independent governors.

States where governor's offices may switch parties, and their electoral votes:

Likely Republican to Democrat:

Illinois, 21
Kansas, 6
Michigan, 17
New Mexico, 5
Pennsylvania, 21

Likely Democrat to Republican:

Hawaii, 4
New Hampshire, 4

Likely Independent to Democrat:

Maine, 4

Too close to call, now held by Republicans:

Arizona, 10
Florida, 27
Massachusetts, 12
Rhode Island, 4
Tennessee, 11
Wisconsin, 10
Wyoming, 3
Too close to call, now held by Democrats:

Alabama, 9
Alaska, 3
Iowa, 7
Maryland, 10
South Carolina, 8

Too close to call, now held by independents:

Minnesota, 10


GOP pollster Bill McInturff says Republicans are "in deep trouble" in pivotal states. Their net loss could be small, but "it's not the same when you trade major states for minor ones."

Democrats will likely have a majority of governorships after the election, including most of the biggest states.