Statisticians Claim 2004 Vote Looks More Like Fraud

Latest Study indicates problems were with vote counting, not with surveys - pdf

There was a terrible skewness to exit poll answers in states and the hypothesis the poll conductors provided turned out not to be valid.

The Edison/Mitofsky report confirms there were large differences between their exit polls and the official results of the 2004 presidential election – much more so than in previous elections. The national exit poll indicated a 3 point victory for Kerry; whereas the official election results indicated that he lost by 2.5%, a difference of 5.5%. The Edison/Mitofsky report fails to substantiate their hypothesis that the difference between their exit polls and official election results should be explained by problems with the exit polls. They assert without supporting evidence that (p. 4), “Kerry voters were more likely to participate in the exit polls than Bush voters.” In fact, data included within the report suggest that the opposite might be true.

We consider here the three possible explanations for a discrepancy between the official vote count and exit polls:

1. Statistical sampling error – or chance
2. Inaccurate exit polls – Kerry supporters responded in greater numbers than Bush supporters.
3. Inaccurate election – the voters’ intent was not accurately recorded or counted.

We agree with Edison/Mitofsky that the first possible cause, random statistical sampling error, can be ruled out. The second possible cause, that inaccurate exit polls were biased towards Kerry, is a hypothesis that is compelling only if one dismisses the third, that official election results may have been distorted2.

They then effectively dismiss 2 as the more GOP the precinct the likelier the surveyers were to get responders. Either the GOP voters in Democratic precincts are ashamed to admit they voted for Bush or the election results need to be looked at.