Wednesday, January 31, 2007
Another warning, this time from Robert Perry, who's sources are all in agreement that Bush is likely to attack Iran in a "crazy" throw of the dice. Robert Parry broke many of the Iran-Contra stories for the Associated Press and Newsweek. He also reports that the hopeless nature of Iraq is also all the insider talk in DC.
Israel privately believes it can deter a nuclear Iran with its own large nuclear arsenal but all public efforts are devoted to stopping Iran's nuclear weapons capability. Israel can only do a limited attack on its own to stop this, their plans assume an American attack at some point.
Despite Charges, No Evidence Iran Sending IEDs to Iraq. I am skeptical as I believe that with Iran's strong influence in Iraq it doesn't need to do this and it seems dangerously provocative to do this to a superpower looking for an excuse to attack. Why would anyone believe American intel statements on this now without any proof? Of course, this doesn't mean that Iran didn't provide training for the people and groups involved. Guerrilla military training for sympathetic groups is part of Iran's strategic doctrine. Does the US provide military training to similar groups? Yes. Are we using them to attack Iran? Yes, under the Iran Freedom Support Act of which the American media only mentioned the sanctions part. The Iraqi Prime Minister has now asked both sides, the US and Iran, to stand down and try to prevent his country from becoming their battlefield.
A counterargument that Iran is actually supplying these IEDs is that once an institution is set up to do something a certain way it always does it that way. Iran has set up a training and military supply program for sympathetic groups and not supplying them with the latest techniques and weapons would take a major act of political leadership.
Some history - as an example of Standard Operating Procedures creating unintended consequences see the Cuban Missile Crisis. This was partially the result of military and foreign policy institutions in both the Soviet Union and the United States following S.O.P. after their leaders had decided on new policies. John F. Kennedy had ordered short range obsolete nuclear missiles removed from Greece and Turkey but the military had never gotten around to carrying out that order. Khrushchev was understandably upset about missiles on the Soviet Union's borders and ordered similar military missile bases secretly set up in Cuba to be revealed at the proper moment. The Russian military team in Cuba followed the same blueprint for the bases they used in Russia and a U.S. photo-analyst recognized what they were. The result was the bases were revealed before they were complete, actually the missiles could fire already but the U.S. didn't know that, and Kennedy could not publicly trade removing his missile bases on Russian borders he had already ordered removed for the Cuban bases removal without looking weak. The U.S. invasion of Cuba only days away was also planned under the assumption that the Russian troops wouldn't receive authorization to use nuclear weapons. Under Russian military SOP the local commander was authorized and prepared to use both the missiles and some tactical nuclear weapons if attacked. Despite tremendous pressure from our military leaders, Kennedy by not following normal diplomatic procedures managed to avert a nuclear war.
In Iran, Bush wants a war and with war momentum, cautious Democrats, and Murphy's laws of SOP he may get it.
Update - Bush-Cheney Building a case for war with Iran.
The poor case for war with Iran.
Tags: Iran, war, Israel, history, SOP, Cuban Missile Crisis, nuclear war