CIA warned about Fedeyeen and Guerilla Tactics Before War

Intelligence analysts warned senior Pentagon officials before the war in Iraq began that Iraqi paramilitary units would fight back and could pose a significant threat to American-led coalition forces, officials said on Thursday.

The Central Intelligence Agency issued a report last month that said that paramilitary units fanatically loyal to Saddam Hussein could threaten rear areas during an allied advance. The agency report also raised concerns about the possibility that the paramilitary forces could mount attacks against Iraqi civilians and use other irregular methods to try to tie down coalition forces.

Analysts at the Defense Intelligence Agency also voiced concerns about the paramilitary forces in the months leading up to war with Iraq, and warned the military leadership about the threat from guerrilla-style attacks. Officials said the issue was also raised by analysts at the National Ground Intelligence Center, another branch of military intelligence.

The optimism of the [civilian] political leadership at the Pentagon [Rumsfeld and his crew] that Saddam's government would quickly collapse in the face of an American-led invasion may also have overridden concerns among analysts about the possibility that Iraqi forces would use guerrilla tactics.

Warnings that two paramilitary groups close to Hussein — the Fedayeen Saddam and the Special Security Organization — might fight were also raised last October in a National Intelligence Estimate, a classified document that offered a consensus view of the entire intelligence community on the problems American forces might face in ground combat in Iraq.