Talking Points Memo: by Joshua Micah Marshall

TPM -- Email from an expert:

This is an email I received this evening from a former career diplomat who served as U.S. ambassador to a Muslim country. He also studied military strategy at the National War College with retired four-stars like Wes Clark, Hugh Shelton, and others.

Three Scenarios:

1. We will have to engage in major bombing in Baghdad, including in civilian areas. To use the Vietnam era phrase, "we had to destroy the village in order to save it." International outrage will be overwhelming, and we will pay the price in the Arab and Muslim worlds for years to come. Operation Iraqi Freedom becomes Operation Iraqi Conquest.

2. We will have to retreat from the city, bloodied and demoralized -- to borrow your phrase, this is the chickenhawk down scenario. There will be calls from within the US (and certainly from Britain) to pull out of Iraq all together, because the mission has failed. How do you spell "Dunkirk?"

3. This is what I think is the most likely scenario. Cooler heads such as Colin Powell and our senior military leaders will be able to convince Bush that Option 1 and 2 are not "viable." We will need to surround the city, secure the rest of the country, and then play the game of "political standoff."

I disagree here that Bush will agree to end the standoff by making a deal with Saddam for robust inspections. Bush is willing to have this be his Vietnam.

We have a great, fantastic military. We owe them far better civilian leaders.