Home State Advantage

On 13 occasions [from 1948 to 2000], either a presidential or vice-presidential candidate failed to win his or her home state. In 12 of these 13 instances, the ticket lost in November. (The sole exception was Richard Nixon's paper-thin victory in 1968, despite Agnew's loss of Maryland.) The lesson is compelling: Clearing the home state hurdle matters.

4 of the 9 Democratic presidential candidates have good to excellent chances to carry their own home states: Dean, Graham, Kerry and Lieberman. And three of the states they represent (hail from?) are nearly guaranteed to be in the Democratic column for any mainstream candidate: Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Vermont. (It's still odd to see Vermont in this Democratic company. After all, only Vermont and Maine never voted for FDR in any of his five runs for national office, for VP in 1920 and president in 1932, 1936, 1940, and 1944.) The fourth, Florida, might well back its favorite son, Bob Graham, although this is NOT a sure thing.

I could go for any of those four.