The Real Election Map

Electorial MAP

Daily Kos Analysis -- I find it overly simplistic (though that may be unavoidable at this early stage of the election), and ignores real demographic trends in the electorate.

Is Arizona really a solid GOP lock? Doubtful, considering recent Democratic successes in the state (we took the governorship during that 2002 "GOP-sweep", and Bush only got 51% of the vote in 2000). I would rate it a lean-red. Oregon depends a great deal on who the Greens run, but it should regardless stay solid-blue (Bush got only 46.5% of the vote in 2000). I would rate Colorado a "lean-red" (Bush got 50.75%), as well as Missouri (Bush got 50.4%). Louisiana is not a solid GOP lock (Bush got 52.5%), nor is Tennessee (Bush got 51%)(EL- I Disagree, discounts Gore effect.) or Ohio (Bush got 49.97%).

The map does not look bad for Democrats, at all. Even with Sabato's charitable (to the GOP) map, the count is only 278 to 260 in Bush's favor.

This race is eminently winnable by any of the top-tier Democrats. That's why I find discussions about who is "electable" tiresome and irrelevant.