The Dean Primary Scenario

1/13 Washington, D.C. non-binding primary - Dean

1/19 Iowa caucus - Gephardt and Dean split

1/27 New Hampshire primary - Huge Dean victory

2/3 Arizona, Delaware, Missouri, New Mexico, Oklahoma, South Carolina primaries; North Dakota caucus - Dean takes Arizona and New Mexico - best time for someone else to break out

2/7 Michigan, Washington caucuses & 2/8 Maine caucus Dean should win all.

2/10 Tennessee, Virginia primaries; Washington, D.C. caucus Dean gets DC for real now, the anti-Dean needs the other two.

2/17 Wisconsin primary - Dean

2/24 Michigan primary; Idaho caucus & 2/27 Utah caucus Dean takes Michigan primary

3/2 California, Connecticut, Georgia, Massachusetts, New York, Ohio, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington primaries; Hawaii, Minnesota caucuses Dean could win all but two or three and there could be pull-outs of other candidates. Delegate count becomes important here in other candidates calculations.

3/9 Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas primaries Dean takes Texas proving he can win, at least symbolically, in Bush country and the South. If Clark or Gephardt or Edwards has consolidated anti-Dean sentiment this should be their break-out day.

This HAS BEEN ADAPTED from here.

The case for not having a Dean clear AND EARLY victory is that while staying the frontrunner Dean could have much less than a majority of delegates giving other candidates hope for a divided convention where insiders and several candidates could unite behind a unity ticket. Remember, Dean needs 61% of primary and caucus selected delegates who are selected proportionately to have a guaranteed win on the first ballot.