Gallup -- Howard Dean Still Unknown - Democratic Nomination Up For Grabs

1. Are the Democratic candidates becoming better known after months of intensive campaigning?

No, except for retired Army Gen. Wesley Clark. Despite a great deal of media focus on the Democratic race, including a number of nationally televised debates, most of the candidates are not better known today among members of their own party than they were back in August, just before the campaigning began in earnest.

The lack of significant upward movement in the name identification of Dean is perhaps the most surprising finding here. He has been widely considered -- by pundits, columnists, and professional political observers -- to be the front-runner in the race, and he has certainly received a good proportion of the news coverage about the Democratic candidates. Still, as can be seen, only 46% of members of his own party say they know enough about Dean to give an opinion either way, slightly less than his name identification among all Americans.

2. Is there a clear front-runner for the Democratic nomination nationally?

No. Five Democratic candidates are now within seven points of one another when Democrats who are registered to vote are asked whom they want to be their party's nominee next year:

Dean is technically the front-runner, with 17% of the vote of registered Democrats nationally, but he is followed very closely by Lieberman at 15%, Clark at 14%, Gephardt at 12%, and Kerry at 10%.

The relative strength of the candidates is even clearer when we take into consideration whom Democrats name as their top two choices. Lieberman, Clark, Dean, Gephardt, and Kerry all receive support from at least 20% of registered Democrats (as first or second choice), but none of the other candidates receives more than 12%.

These results contrast with the front-runner status assigned to Dean by observers who assume that Dean's money-raising (he has raised more money than any of the other Democratic candidates), the fact that he has received the endorsements of high-profile institutional and labor groups, and his lead in the crucial early primary state of New Hampshire put him in the leadership position. Be that as it may, it is clear that Democrats nationally have not yet moved to a position where they have decided on Dean as their clear top choice, perhaps -- as noted above -- because they have yet to focus fully on the race.

3. Even if there is no clear front-runner, is there any evidence that Democrats like some of the candidates better than others?

All of the candidates, with the exception of Sharpton, have a more favorable than unfavorable image among Democrats across the country. Clark, Kerry, Dean, Edwards, and Lieberman all have favorable percentages of 70% or more (based on a base of those who know the candidates well enough to have an opinion about them). Of the leading contenders, Gephardt is viewed least favorably among Democrats; still, nearly 7 in 10 have a positive impression of the Missouri congressman.

Dean has been profiled in several publications recently (most recently in USA Today in a cover story on Wednesday, Nov. 12) as having a "prickly" personality. But his three-to-one favorable to unfavorable image among Democrats is right in line with the other candidates.

What about the images of the Democratic candidates among the general American population -- something that will be of great importance once the general election campaign begins?

Clark clearly has the most favorable image of any of the candidates, with a net positive of 26 percentage points among the group of Americans who know enough about him to give an opinion. Clark is followed by Lieberman, Kerry, and Edwards, with net favorables in the +10 to +16 range, and then Gephardt and Dean. The remaining three candidates have net unfavorable images, with Sharpton in possession of the most negative image of all.

4. How are the Democratic candidates stacking up against George W. Bush?

In hypothetical trial heats, Republican President George W. Bush beats all of the Democratic candidates -- but by varying margins.

Clark does best of the five leading Democrats; Bush beats Clark by only three percentage points among registered voters nationwide. Dean does the worst; Bush beats him by nine percentage points.