Tricky Medicare Politics

Liberal Oasis -- The key for Dems is to engage the senior grassroots, so that no matter what happens in Congress, seniors will know Bush and the GOP are out to screw them.

If the outcry from the seniors is loud enough that the bill dies, that’s a bonus.

But the bill can pass and still hurt the Republicans by 2004.

Why? Two big reasons.

Seniors are dead-set against privatization (See LO’s June 20 post), and this bill has more privatization than the earlier June Senate compromise.

And the drug benefit remains pretty chintzy.

According to yesterday’s Wall Street Journal, “critics say it will cover about 25% of seniors’ drug spending over the next decade”.

That is not the comprehensive benefit seniors have been asking for all this time.

And nothing can spark resentment more than not getting what you asked for, while being told that you did.

This is also why the AARP may be in a very precarious position.

It does not appear that the AARP polled its 35M members (many who join for nonpolitical reasons) about this specific bill.

It looks like the GOP simply worked the AARP leadership.

And if the leadership has gotten ahead of its members, the endorsement, which certainly comes with serious lobbying strength, may not protect the GOP in the long-term.

One indication of this comes from Sen. Tom Harkin in UPI:

"I find this bizarre," Sen. Tom Harkin, D-Iowa, said of the AARP endorsement.

AARP had conducted three meetings in Iowa regarding Medicare, he said, including hundreds of seniors.

When those seniors were asked to show hands in support of either bill, "not one senior raised his or her hand to support it," Harkin said.

Senate Democratic leader Tom Daschle said the AARP could face a backlash from its own membership.

"Like the AARP's previous decision to support the 1988 catastrophic health bill, this is a mistake that does not serve the interests of its members," he said. "When seniors see the details of this Republican plan, the AARP will undoubtedly regret this ill-advised decision."

Seniors will actually spend more for health care under the bill until they spend over $1100 a year on drugs, $93 a month. This assumes it is 50% co-pay. There is talk this has been changed to 25% in which case you start saving money at about $50 a month in current drug costs.