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Wednesday, February 04, 2004
ABC Political Note Digested
Yesterday delegate counts:
Kerry: 128
Edwards: 61
Clark: 49
Dean: 7
Sharpton: 1
Number of states in which Gov. Howard Dean finished first or second yesterday: 0.
How much Edwards plays in Michigan is at this writing still TBD, but he will try to trip Kerry up in Virginia and/or Tennessee next Tuesday. But if Kerry wins the three intervening contests -- Michigan, Washington state, and Maine -- it will be tougher to stop him in those Southern/border states.
Edward's strengths are Kerry's weaknesses: South roots, likeability, and an absence of Washington insider-dom, and humble origins.
The question for Edwards now are:
A. Does he try to really compete in (expensive) Michigan, or skip straight through to next Tuesday's states, where he is going on TV today?
B. Can he raise a lot of money this week, to advertise extensively in Tennessee and Virginia, where he hasn't been able to afford TV so far?
C. How big an appetite is there among the unions, Democratic members of Congress, and others for an anti-Kerry choice, and how much can Edwards tap it?
D. Does he start to confront Kerry more directly on policy and biography than he has up to now (he has started down that road in the last few days)?
The Los Angeles Times' Ron Brownstein writes that there "are chinks" in Sen. Kerry's armor, Noting that in exit polls "he fared worse among voters who said their priority was a candidate who cared about people like them."
"Dean conceded Tuesday that he has no chance of winning Michigan, as polls show Kerry with an overwhelming lead."
Is Washington Saturday Dean's best shot at a win? Washington Democrats may be the most liberal the presidential candidates have faced yet and "it'll be a battle that has split the state's party establishment between Howard Dean and John Kerry."
Teacher's union, three million strong, to endorse Kerry.
The Washington Post's Schwartzman Notes that Clark's advisors believe the close call in Oklahoma, "along with second-place showings in North Dakota and New Mexico, would lay the groundwork for going on."
Sharpton campaign has no money. In fact, it is nearly half a million dollars in debt and the FEC has yet to approve its requests for matching funds.
Kucinich gets 5% in New Mexico, best showing yet.
Tonight's West Wing will feature an actual bipartisan Social Security reform plan drafted for the show by consultant and entitlement maven Gene Sperling.
More Political Note here.
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