The Democratic Campaign Now

Dean's fervent supporters dream of vindication in California vote

Carolyn Curtis, a technical writer from Palo Alto who has taken leave from her freelance business to work for Dean for most of the past year, said it would be unfair of Dean to drop out now.

"I don't want him to do that, because I want to vote,'' she said, adding that she had already sent in her absentee ballot. She noted how many California Dean supporters had traveled to other states to work on earlier elections, and said she would remain active somehow. Asked if she might travel to another state to work for Kerry, she paused.

Then she answered, "I would go to another state to beat George Bush. Put it that way.''

Kerry claims victory over Edwards in close primary

Edwards was buoyed by a surge of support in the final days of the Wisconsin campaign and vowed to fight on. Their close 1-2 finish suggested a two-man race as the campaign moves toward a March 2 Super Tuesday showdown.

"We'll go full-throttle to the next group of states," said Edwards, given new life and momentum to take on Kerry in a shrinking field.

Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean appeared to finish a distant third - his 17th loss in a row - and headed home to Vermont to reassess his campaign.

The race turns next to a coast-to-coast series of contests on March 2, the single biggest day of voting when 1,151 delegates will be up for grabs in California, Connecticut, Georgia, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont.

Kerry rolled into Wisconsin as the undisputed front-runner for the nomination, having won with increasing ease in past weeks. He emerged still the front-runner, but no longer assured of an easy march to victory.

At stake Tuesday were Wisconsin's 72 delegates. Kerry entered the day with 578 of the 2,162 delegates needed to secure the nomination. Dean had 188, Edwards 166 and the Rev. Al Sharpton of New York had 16.

Edwards said it was up to Dean whether to withdraw.

"Governor Dean has to decide for himself," Edwards said. "I have a lot of respect for Governor Dean. He's been an important voice in this primary. But I think it's a practical matter. It's already narrowed down to Sen. Kerry and myself. We clearly have the ability to go long-term in this nomination process."

Dean braced for political oblivion.

"We didn't do as well as we had hoped," Dean told supporters in Wisconsin Tuesday evening.

"We are not done," he added. But he was returning to Vermont for a series of meetings on Wednesday to decide his plans amid signs that many of his aides would follow their former campaign chairman in quitting.

Candidate......Vote%........Delegates

John Kerry..........39.7%..........30
John Edwards.....34.3%..........24
Howard Dean......18.2%..........13
Dennis Kucinich.......3.3%............0
Al Sharpton.............1.8%............0

Edwards' strong showing rooted in emphasis on jobs

Edwards had registered 27 points behind Kerry as recently as Sunday in one widely tracked Wisconsin poll, and his late surge in voter support made him almost as big a news story out of Wisconsin as the winner, Kerry.

Edwards' surge in Wisconsin was boosted by his relentless focus on job losses in the state, where a large immigrant population decades ago helped build a middle class with manufacturing jobs that are now disappearing.

"He zeroed in on (jobs) better than anybody else," said Jeff Mayers, editor of the Web site wispolitics.com. Edwards' campaign staff "picked their spots to target people who, even if they hadn't lost their job, they knew somebody who did or felt this general insecurity about the economy and health care."

All the Democratic candidates highlight plans to protect workers, but Edwards packages his arguments in more accessible language and sells them with his anecdotes about growing up in a textile mill family.

"I come from a different background than he does," Edwards said during a midday television interview. "I have new, fresh ideas about how we can change Washington. I have not been in Washington 15 or 20 years. And I have opposed trade agreements like NAFTA, which I think have cost lots of jobs, and which Sen. Kerry supports."

Wired News - Blogs - Where The Money and Political Activists Are

"He uses the Internet almost exclusively for fantasy baseball," said campaign spokesman Jason Sauer, who added that he wasn't sure whether, until recently, Chandler even knew what a blog was.

But that was before Chandler's campaign turned a $2,000 investment in blog advertising into over $80,000 in donations in only two weeks. Chandler -- who won a seat in the House of Representatives Tuesday evening -- definitely knows what a blog is now, Sauer said. "It's that thing that brings in money."

Should Edwards thank Drudge?

Isn't it possible that Matt Drudge, and not NAFTA, was the factor that led all those undecided voters to break for Edwards at the last minute? If a Wisconsin voter knew one thing about Kerry, a Dean staffer told me, it was that there was a rumor that the senator had an affair with a younger woman. It was all over local radio, not to mention the fact that Rush Limbaugh was flogging it for three hours each afternoon. Yes, the woman has denied it. Yes, there's no evidence for it. And yes, there is evidence that Drudge got the facts wrong in his report. But just because a rumor is unsubstantiated doesn't mean that voters aren't affected by it. Live by electability, die by electability. If the entire rationale of your campaign is that you can win in November, voters would be completely justified in rejecting you because of a rumor, even one that they believe is untrue, if they think that other voters might not vote for you because of it.

I can't quantify Drudge's impact on the campaign, but his rumor-mongering is the simplest explanation for the closeness of the race. I find it hard to believe that the independents and Republicans casting ballots for Edwards harbor deep anti-NAFTA feelings, while the Democrats voting for Kerry are ardent free traders.

Edwards crossover appeal by William Saletan.

Among independents in the exit-polled states, Kerry has beaten Edwards in six contests; Edwards has beaten Kerry in four. This month, the candidates are tied with four wins apiece. Since Feb. 10, Edwards has won two primaries to Kerry's one.

The pattern among crossover Republicans is more lopsided. Kerry has won one contest; Edwards has won six. This month, Edwards has beaten Kerry among Republicans in all six states in which Republican votes were measured.

Remember, Democrats are as likely to vote for Edwards against President Bush as they are to vote for Kerry against Bush. It's far more likely that independents and crossover Republicans will determine the outcome. In states where the choices of these groups have been measured, Edwards is matching Kerry among independents and beating him among crossover Republicans.

Among "agrees with you" voters, Kerry has beaten Edwards in five contests; Edwards has beaten Kerry in four. This month, they're even at four apiece. Since Feb. 10, Edwards is ahead, two contests to one. Consequently, if "agrees with you" voters continue their February pattern, and if "can defeat Bush" voters begin to split evenly between Kerry and Edwards, Edwards will beat Kerry in half the remaining states. But if "can defeat Bush" voters discover that Edwards is more electable and begin to vote for him instead of Kerry, Edwards will beat Kerry in most states, and the delegate count will turn.

The Onion - Kerry Makes Whistlestop Tour from Deck of Yacht

Democratic frontrunner Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) began a seven-day, eight-state whistle-stop tour Monday, addressing a group of Frigidaire factory workers from the all-teak deck of his 60-foot luxury motor cruiser.