Swing Voters in Swing States Are Voters That Count Most

The next president of the United States could be determined by a few million people living in the suburbs of Albuquerque, or Pittsburgh, or maybe St. Louis.

There are at least 15 states up for grabs in the fall: Minnesota, Arkansas, Michigan, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Oregon, Iowa, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Missouri, New Hampshire, Louisiana, Ohio, Tennessee and (naturally) Florida, birthplace of the chad. (List is based on an average of how those states voted in the past three presidential elections.)

The good news for Bush is that swing voters, by 2 to 1, agree with his handling of terrorism and the war in Iraq. But there's also good news for Kerry: 68 percent of the undecideds aren't happy with the economy and say Bush could be doing more to improve economic conditions.

Gay marriage? Nearly two-thirds (64 percent) of swing voters are opposed to it, which falls almost in the middle between the attitudes of Bush supporters (82 percent opposed) and those of Kerry supporters (43 percent against). They don't call them swing voters for nothing.

More news from the swing-factor front: Ralph Nader -- the other candidate Democrats have to worry about -- is looking pretty perky in a new poll.

The poll, conducted for the Associated Press by Ipsos Public Affairs, showed Bush with 46 percent and Kerry with 45 percent. No surprises there. But Nader, the consumer advocate-turned-politician, pulled in support from 6 percent of those surveyed. That's potentially a race-altering figure. Kerry has been running ahead of the president in polls that do not include Nader.