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Friday, July 18, 2003
The Argument Now Isn't That Dean Isn't Electable
The other demographers among political analysts now are saying just harder or less probable than some other Democrats.
"Really, it seems to DR that Dean supporters' main argument has to be that the Dean straight talkin', McCain mojo, aggressive alpha-male thing will obviate any need for the kind of electoral finesse displayed by Clinton. Independents will hear that straight talkin' and they'll rush to sign up, especially as the administration continues to dissemble on Iraq, etc. But DR believes that not all independents are created equal and that Dean's approach and persona is still likely to yield its most success with socially liberal, upscale independents in relatively liberal states.
None of this is to say that Dean couldn't possibly beat Bush in any situation. If the administration gets into enough hot water on Iraq and the economy anything is possible. But, if they get into that kind of hot water, then a more moderate, less polarizing--less purely professional class!--candidate like Kerry or Gephardt is even more likely to be able to beat Bush."
Sorry, I see Kerry being less electable than Dean and Gephardt is a loser. The best demographically would be Graham or Edwards or Clark but i think Dean has a lot going for him based on his middle-class and older supporters in Texas.
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