Christian Science Monitor

Latino vote in '04 is a big enchilada

Among all the what-ifs of the contested 2000 presidential election, here's one: In Miami, the Bush campaign spent more than $800,000 on Spanish-language television ads and Al Gore spent nothing.

If Vice President Gore had fought as hard as George W. Bush did for the Latino vote in Florida, could he have won that critical state? No one will ever know, but Democrats wish they could have that decision over again.

The Democrats won't make that mistake again, especially now that Hispanics are the largest minority population in America, at nearly 40 million people. Last Thursday, congressional Democrats unveiled a policy agenda aimed at wooing that voter bloc, highlighting the economy, education, healthcare, civil rights, and immigration.

A recent nationwide poll by Sergio Bendixen, a Democratic pollster in Florida, found that 69 percent of Hispanic voters believe Bush has not kept his promise on Latin America. But in the end, it is the same issues that Americans as a whole care about that top the list for Hispanic voters: education (31 percent), jobs and the economy (29), healthcare (10), and Social Security (8).

Within the Democratic Party, the Hispanic vote is also taking on unprecedented importance. For the first time, the first big multi-state primary date - Feb. 3, 2004 - will include two states with large Hispanic populations, New Mexico and Arizona. Dubbed "Hispanic Tuesday," these primaries are presenting the Democrats with an opportunity to fine-tune their message to Hispanic voters.

The impact of a historic deficit

That's right - the river of red ink that characterized federal budget policy in the 1980s and early '90s is back. Tuesday the White House released a midterm budget update that estimates this year's deficit will be $450 billion or more. In dollar terms, even after adjusting for inflation, that would easily be the largest such shortfall ever.

"It's a perfect storm for the budget," says Robert Bixby, executive director of the Concord Coalition, a fiscal watchdog group. "Taxes are going down, spending is going up, and politicians don't seem terribly concerned about it."

Talking with Ralph Nader

On what about the current democratic candidates makes him consider another white house bid:

"First of all, the unwillingness or inability to go after the principal vulnerability of the Republican Party and George W. Bush, which is the corporate crime, fraud, and abuse wave that has swept the country in a more intensified level in the last three years."

On whether president bush can be beaten in 2004:

"He is very vulnerable but not if you campaign the way the major candidates - except for [Howard] Dean and [US Rep. Dennis] Kucinich - are campaigning. You cannot win an election against George W. Bush while treating him as a wartime president."