Tuesday, July 22, 2003

Cooking the Books On Economic Recovery?


A letter to the editor notes that the National Bureau of Economic Research is using new definitions of recessions and recoveries that don't depend on how many people are working.

Perhaps these seven economists have convinced themselves that a jobless recovery can be called a recovery, but I doubt that they will be able to convince America's workers and job-seekers.

Link from Eschaton

And here is the original story which didn't catch all the changes the Bureau made in the definition.

"Employment . . . has never been down so much this far into a post-recessionary phase," he said, noting that payroll employment is still 2 percent below its peak, compared with being roughly 5 percent higher at the same point in prior economic recoveries.

The current situation "makes the early-1990s 'jobless recovery' look like a hiring spree," he added.

Of the National Bureau of Economic Research's four traditional monthly indicators, payroll employment is unambiguously still down.

But, the committee noted in its statement, "the other monthly series also paint a mixed picture."


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