Black voters essential for Dem candidates and up for grabs

In the race for Democratic delegates, the big prizes next week are Arizona and Missouri. But for those looking ahead to November, the most important contest may be in South Carolina. Not only will next Tuesday's vote in the Palmetto State mark the first primary in the South, but also the first in a state where African American voters are likely to determine the outcome.

Now, the race in South Carolina shapes up as a four-candidate contest between Edwards, Kerry, Clark, and Sharpton. But nearly 20 percent of South Carolina Democrats remain undecided, according to a recent poll by the American Research Group from Jan. 23-24.

"If Sharpton gets half the black vote, he could wind up being the winner, because the rest will split between the other candidates," says Bill Lynch, former vice-chair of the Democratic National Committee and a longtime political operative who has advised Sharpton's campaign. Lynch says blacks may be tempted to back Sharpton, even if they know he'll never be the nominee. "That's what they did with Jesse Jackson," who won the Democratic primaries in South Carolina in 1984 and 1988.

The concerted push by Edwards and Clark, local observers say, could rapidly eat into Sharpton's apparent edge among black voters. In fact, Kerry, Dean, Edwards, and Clark may be counting on the fact that, for most black voters, the most important agenda is defeating George W. Bush.

Dean had been trying to present himself as the man who could take on Bush, in part by bringing black and white voters together. It was Dean who argued that the Democratic Party needed to adopt a new "Southern Strategy," and supporters like Jackson Jr. credit him with being the first candidate to address the issues of race in America head-on. But Dean's message -- that Republicans have won the South by dividing the region along racial lines -- has been largely co-opted by Edwards and others.

Having slipped badly in the South Carolina polls -- he drew the support of fewer black voters polled than either Kerry or Edwards -- Dean's campaign is now shifting its focus to the Feb. 7 primary in Michigan, where blacks account for nearly 20 percent of likely Democratic voters, and where Dean believes he can draw strong support.