A long post for me with no links.

I was wrong. I was sure that Democrats would pick up seats in the House and Senate. They lost seats.

I disregarded indications that the polls were showing a rebound for Republicans in the last 3 days.

I discounted the Bush campaigning factor, looking at it as hurting his popularity but not helping to energize his supporters.

I was keenly aware of but discounted the effect of a lack of clearly articulated alternatives from administration policies by the Democrats.

It wasn’t until the day of voting that I realized that a key theme for minority voters was job creation, which the Democrats weren’t addressing.

Until the afternoon of the election, when I checked some black precincts, I was unaware that Blacks in Houston were not energized by this election.

I thought that because I was aware of some things that were below the appealing surface of this administration more people might look below that surface.

Democrats are not up 3 Senate seats and 5 House seats. They have lost a few seats including the loss of control in the senate, a disaster for liberals, progressives, and libertarians.

Quotes from watching the returns.

Senator McCain: “We could have Bush’s in the White House for the rest of this century.”

Rush Limbaugh: “In President Bush we have someone with no character flaws.”

Senate candidate Ron Kirk: “I have my pj’s on underneath my clothes. Right now I am going upstairs. When someone calls up and tells me I won I’ll come down.”

Governor candidate Tony Sanchez: “This reminds me of 1948. I have a message for Perry, I am going to give him Hell until the last vote is counted.”

Houston TV anchor Dave Ward at 10:23: “If you are interested in the voting results for tonight you have better brew another pot of coffee. This is going to be a long, long night.”

Around this time only 5% of Harris county precincts are reported.

Some advice from TV anchor Chris Matthews: “Don’t get mad, don’t get even, get ahead.”

As always, the best political intelligent analysis and discussion was on PBS’s Charlie Rose. Sorry, no quotes, just intelligent commercial-free conversation.

Late election results: just after midnight Central Standard Time was when they announced the House remained Republican. Just after 1 AM they announced the Senate was theirs. Still only 34% of Harris county precincts posted.

Interesting, a couple of Republican pundits thought that if you were running on the economy that meant you had to be for tax cuts, which the Democrats weren’t. No wonder the public was split on who could best handle the economy. This is partially true - the Democrats offered no reward for most people for voting for them. When you are running against a popular figure this is a recipe for disaster.

Big losers: moderates, all Democratic Party leaders including Gore and Clinton; big emotional appeals; non-articulated differences, and lack of vision.

The Democratic leadership is now totally up for grabs. With the failure of top Democratic leaders to sway voters in this election people who stayed out of the public eye like Kerry and Edwards have gained ground.

Big winners: Bush, Rove, “compassionate conservatism” and experienced administrators / leaders. The Republicans also elected some new articulate future leaders. I am not sure I saw any on the Democrat side.

Bush got the win tonight he did not get in 2000. Maybe the Democrats should be grateful it is as limited a numerical victory as it is.

One key factor that I think Republicans have learned is not to let an issue get too far away from them, particularly if it involves compassion. If the Democrats are gaining by proposing a prescription drug benefit plan that covers 15 million people they will propose one of their own. The voters will hear the sound bite that the Republicans have a plan and not notice it only covers 150,000 people. It is possible to take this issue back in play by attacking the Republican plan but the play book for the Republicans is then to contrast the cost of the plans and show that the Democrats are fiscally irresponsible with “tax-and-spend liberal” ideas.

I agree with James Carville that Democrats need to get a vision and hit back hard in simple language. I don’t agree with the recent West Wing episode that you have to say some issues are much too complicated for 10 words. If you must, have a 10 word sound bite and then give a few details. The majority of voters don't want complicated.

I have a simple vision now, Bush is Darth Vader working to establish the evil empire. Democrats are the leaders of the rebellion.

I doubt that many voters share this vision. It does have the advantage that it allows Greens and Libertarians to be Democratic allies. But is that even an advantage?

What political platform can capture a majority of American voters? Where does a respect for the Constitution and a need to balance individual liberty against corporate greed and government power come in? Democrats and progressives are left with questions and a conviction they need to develop a complete platform or contract with voters. I see no unity in what that platform should be.