Sunday, November 03, 2002

NYTimes -- Still in Doubt, Fight for Senate Grows Feverish

Politicians and strategists on both sides agreed that control of the Senate could not be forecast with any certainty. Still, Democrats said they were increasingly confident they could hold their one-seat margin, and perhaps even expand it. Some Republicans also said privately that Democrats had a thin advantage in these final days, if only because Republicans need to gain a seat to take control.

It could be days or weeks, however, until the outcome is known, given the possibility of challenges and a December runoff election in Louisiana. Strategists on both sides say that races in Missouri, Colorado, Arkansas, South Dakota, New Hampshire and Minnesota, among others, could break either way.

"It is easier for me to imagine the Democrats holding the Senate than the Republicans getting to 50, but not a lot easier," said Stuart Rothenberg of The Rothenberg Political Report, a nonpartisan political newsletter. "This is a hold-your-breath election."

There has been so much attention on the Senate because many political operatives and analysts said they considered it unlikely — but certainly not impossible — that Democrats could capture the seven seats needed to gain control of the House. There is a consensus that Democrats will score a big gain in governorships.

My prediction as of Friday was a one vote Republican control of the House and Democrats pick up Senate seats. Officially 8 Senate seats and about 30 House seats are too close to call. I will give another prediction Monday night, Tuesday I am helping to get out the vote.

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