Friday, December 26, 2003

Howard Dean has likely Huge lead in Delegates

Using the standard DNC formula and only allocating delegates to candidates that poll above 15%, Dean could have a majority of delegates by the end of March based on the latest polls.

Based on the latest polls the assigned delegates for NH and Iowa should be Dean 40, Kerry 14 and Gephardt 13, others 0. (In this methodology, the latest poll is used and undecideds are allocated proportionately to candidates and candidates below 15% are then dropped.)

With a large field this can be devastating to some candidates. For example, in Texas based on the latest poll Dean, Lieberman and Clark will be the only ones to get delegates with Dean picking up 40%. Gephardt, falling just below the 15% cutoff, gets none.

Extended this through March 2nd Dean will have 1014 of 1959 delegates assign to that point. Unless a candidate can break through to the 15% level they are assured of no delegates.

This does confirm my earlier prediction of candidates dropping out due to lack of money and delegates particularly after March 2nd but indicates the chances of a brokered or deadlocked convention look much lower.

I wouldn't make any major changes to my predictions now. I would update the SC race to have Dean now leading. I should replace Gephardt with Lieberman in some of the results based on polls but the impression I still have is the closer an election gets the more Lieberman numbers sink. Clark is becoming the unDean with Gephardt having an outside chance. Lieberman needs a favorable poll or money surge in the next month.

BTW, yes, I am still a bit worried over the Christian Liberation Front.

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