Sunday, January 04, 2004

Latest Polls Shows Surge By Dean


CNN/Time Poll - Dean strongest candidate - only 5% behind Bush.

Among Democrat voters nationally a double digit lead over closest rivals.
Note that Kucinich also has a surge to 5%, I think in some states he will clearly crack the 15% barrier. On Dean head-to-heads against other Democratic candidates only Clark has a chance with Dean preferred 46 - 32%.

Do January national polls matter? 50/50. Since 1952, Democrats have tried 10 times to put a new president in office. (The campaigns of 1964, 1980 and 1996, when the Democrats nominated an incumbent, are not counted.)

In five of those 10 campaigns, the candidate leading in the national polls in January, like Dean, went on to win the nomination. The article is also very good in pointing out the primary problems facing all candidates except Dean. February will be decisive for all the Dem candidates.

Meanwhile, Dean has a 30 person lead in superdelegates surprising the so-called Washington insiders and media.

Howard Dean 90
John Kerry 59
Dick Gephardt 48
Wesley Clark 24
Joe Lieberman 20
John Edwards 16
"Superdelegates" at stake: 801

In other polls: Dean and Clark in a two-way heat in Arizona 22 - 19%. Dean at 33% and double digit lead in Wisconsin. Dean leads Virginia poll at 21% and endorsements are coming to an energized campaign. Dean Stretches Lead Over Kerry in New Hampshire Primary to 42% - 12%; Clark in 3rd with 9% in Newest Zogby.

Doesn't matter - Pat Robertson Says God Told Him Bush Would Win In A Blowout.

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