Kerry's Secret Faith Weapon - Catholic Men!

Signs of strong support for John Kerry among Catholic voters could mean big trouble ahead for George Bush.

Where his father lost the Catholic vote to Bill Clinton by 16 percentage points, Mr Bush won it against Al Gore by three points, according to exit polls on election day 2000. That gave him enough states for Florida to make a difference.

[In New Hampshire] one surprise was that many more men voted in the primary than had been the case four years ago, while the number of women hardly rose at all. One bigger surprise - a lot of them were Catholics.

Around one third of the New Hampshire population identifies itself as Catholic, and they identified strongly with Mr Kerry. He won nearly as many Catholic votes as the seven other candidates combined. The more people attended church, the more strongly they preferred him.

Men - particularly Catholic men - carried enough states for Mr Bush in 2000 to make the Florida decision decisive. Without their help, the Republicans would have lost at least Missouri, so even the Supreme Court's intervention would not have plucked the presidency out of Democratic hands.