GOP Losing Ground With Public

A Democrat Takeover of Congress?

Are recent wins a harbinger of Democratic House gains in 2004?

In off year elections Democrats won two seats that should have been Republican cakewalks. Now the most recent poll shows the public would prefer a Democrat for Congress by 13%. Despite the terrible redistricting protecting incubents is a Dem takeover possible?

Generic congressional ballot polls (in which people are asked whether they plan to vote for "the Republican" or "the Democrat" for Congress in November) show solid and growing Democratic advantage – as much as 13 points in the latest Time/Harris poll. And while generic ballot polls are useless in determining the outcomes of individual races, political observers generally consider a 5-point lead an indication that a party will pick up seats.

The two special-election wins put Democrats just 11 seats from winning a House majority – a task that would be far easier had House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R-TX) not successfully muscled through his mid-decade redistricting ploy in the Texas legislature. But even DeLay's glorious plan isn't going completely according to plan: despite a map that should net the GOP seven to eight seats, expectations are being lowered as the targeted Democrats hold their own in fundraising and the polls. Democrats now have realistic hopes of limiting their Lone Star State losses to just two or three seats.

Meanwhile, DeLay himself faces a possible criminal indictment and ethics complaints in the House and Delay's Democratic challenger, Richard Morrison, is receiving enthusiastic nationwide support from Democrat activists seeking to "stick it" to the Hammer.

Redistricting has made large swings in the partisan balance of power more unlikely, as incumbents work the process to solidify their control. Therefore, goes the argument, everything would have to fall the Democrats' way for them to regain control of the House. Which is generally true, in a typical election.

But 2004 is not a typical election. The country is torn between the realities of a broken war effort and a moribund economy, and attempts by Republicans to cynically rally voters around the flag and keep them perpetually scared with their conveniently timed "terror warnings."

Republicans cannot run on the economy, since rosy job creation numbers don't match reality on the ground. They cannot run on Iraq, because body bags, prison photos, and Chalabi-the-Iranian-spy don't make for good campaign commercials. They cannot run on the War on Terror, since they successfully linked (however erroneously) Iraq to the War on Terror. All they have left is fear (terror warnings) and hate (gay marriage).

Making things worse for Republicans, they control all three branches of government. That's right, I said worse. Given the chance to control all the levers of government, Republicans have saddled the country with an unwinnable and costly war, record deficits, the worst jobs record since Herbert Hoover, and the most vicious attacks on civil liberties since Richard Nixon. Essentially, the country is learning what happens when Republicans have unfettered control of our government.