Voters Shift in Favor of Kerry

Dislike Direction of Country Under Bush, Solid Lead for Kerry

Widespread unease over the country's direction and doubts about President Bush policies on Iraq and the economy helped propel Sen. John F. Kerry to a solid lead among voters nationwide, according to a new LA Times poll.

The surveys suggest that attitudes may be coalescing for a contest that pivots on the classic electoral question at times of discontent: Will voters see more risk in stability or change?

More than one-third of those questioned in the nationwide poll said they didn't know enough about Kerry to decide whether he would be a better president than Bush. And when asked which candidate was more likely to flip-flop on issues, almost twice as many named Kerry than Bush.

Yet Kerry led Bush by 51% to 44% nationally in a two-way matchup, and by 48% to 42% in a three-way race, with independent Ralph Nader drawing 4%.

Lifting Kerry is a powerful tailwind of dissatisfaction with the nation's course and Bush's answers for challenges at home and abroad. Nearly three-fifths believe the nation is on the wrong track, the highest level a Times poll has recorded during Bush's presidency.

Also, 56% said America "needs to move in a new direction" because Bush's policies have not improved the country. Just 39% say America is better off because of his agenda.

Majorities disapprove of Bush's handling of the economy and Iraq, despite recent encouraging news on both fronts.

Asked which candidate "will be a strong leader for the country," voters divided exactly in half, with 44% choosing each; in a Times' poll in March, Bush held a 9-percentage-point lead on that question.

Also, while Bush narrowly led in March when voters were asked which candidate "has the honesty and integrity to serve as president," the two now are essentially tied, with Bush attracting 41% and Kerry 40%.

Perhaps most troubling for the Democrat, nearly half said Kerry "flip-flops on the issues," while just a quarter applied that description to Bush.

But for Bush, the flip side of the flip-flop charge is a deepening perception that he is too rigid: By a resounding 58% to 16%, poll respondents said the phrase "too ideological and stubborn" applied more to Bush than to Kerry.

Kerry has established these advantages even while voters are just filling in their portrait of him. More than one-third of them — and nearly half of independents — said they did not know enough about Kerry "to decide whether he would be a better president" than Bush. Just 53% said they knew a great deal or even a fair amount about Kerry's domestic policies; only 42% felt that way about his foreign policies.

Kerry has unified Democrats, muted the traditional GOP advantage among men and opened a narrow edge among suburbanites.

Kerry also performs well among many groups that his party's nominees have traditionally relied upon: women, singles, those who attend religious services rarely or never and lower-income families.

Rating Bush's job performance: In the new poll, 51% approved of his performance while 47% disapproved, down only slightly since March.

Over the last 50 years, presidents who have won another term have generally enjoyed approval ratings about 55% or more by this point in the election year, while those who lost had fallen below 50%. So Bush finds himself on the cusp.