London: Most likely Iraq future now a bloody violent breakup

Iraq will be lucky if it manages to avoid a breakup and civil war, says a new report from Britain's highly regarded Royal Institute of International Affairs. Moreover, Iraq could become the spark for a regionwide upheaval.

In a bleak assessment of where Iraq stands nearly 18 months after it was invaded, the institute's Middle East team focused on the internal forces dividing the country.

At best, the report suggests, the United States and its allies can hope for a "muddle through" scenario, holding the country together but falling short of their original goal: the creation of a full-fledged democracy friendly to the West.

To achieve even that, the United States will have to keep all of Iraq's factions "more or less on board" through a combination of clever diplomacy and military restraint, while avoiding any hint of interference in coming elections, the report said.

The "default" scenario, though, is the violent breakup of Iraq, the report said. "Under this scenario, Kurdish separatism and Shitte assertiveness work against a smooth transition to elections, while the Sunni Arab minority remains on the offensive," it said.

The breakup could occur regardless of whether "the U.S. cuts and runs" or whether "U.S. forces try to hold out and prop up the central authority," it said.

The institute is an independent research body chartered by the queen; its scholars frequently advise the government.


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