Why Does Bush Get A Bump Up As News Get Worse?

Because Negativity Helps Republicans

What do we know about bad news? Repeat after me: it always benefits the Republicans. It doesn't matter who's at fault, bad news means negativity, and negativity is the right wing's bread and butter.

The problem is that negativity only motivates bases. To the apolitical, it's a poison that keeps them away from voting booths. This inevitably benefits the minority party, who must burn off enough of the electorate before an election so that they have the majority of what remains. (And yes, if you look at policy positions, Bush is definitely in the minority.) It also plays into the strategic platform of the right because it highlights their message: you should be scared and vote from your basest instincts.

Dems need to energize the electorate. People are inclined to participate when they feel they can make positive change, and this means staying positive. Remove that option and they're back to voting from their fear and loathing.

Kerry needs to quit highlighting how bad things are going now and focus on his "Strategy for Peace," giving people a vision of hope.

At this point, Kerry can borrow a page from the Bush playbook and stay totally positive while his supporters (the reawakened press and the MoveOn PACs) continue to hammer away on Bush's mistakes.

It was interesting to watch the primaries; Kerry stood in the middle while Dean motivated the base with anger, and Edwards found a crossover population ready to embrace his positive message. Although Kerry ended up with the nomination, Edwards won the argument about approach.