Florida Latino Vote Up For Grabs

Signs of Weakening Bush Support?

In 2000, Bush won Florida by a mere 537 votes, but his advantage among Cubans was about 4-to-1. Non-Cuban Hispanics tend to vote Democratic and are flocking to the state. On Nov. 2, the key to Florida — the decisive swing state four years ago — could well be this disparate Hispanic vote.

Even with the huge GOP advantage with Cubans, Democrat Al Gore almost pulled even with Bush among all Hispanic voters in 2000 (Bush 49 percent, Gore 48 percent) — thanks to non-Cubans along I-4. Hispanics represented 17 percent of the Florida population in 2002, with various groups of non-Cubans comprising two-thirds of the Hispanic total.

Jeb Bush split the non-Cuban vote during his 2002 re-election bid largely because he is fluent in Spanish and reached out to voters in their own language. His TV commercials appealed to the pride Hispanics have for their native countries. It didn't hurt, either, that his wife, Columba, is Mexican.

But there's no guarantee that the president can fare as well as his brother.

"People are upset with the president, which is good. What we want him to do is show the real John Kerry and not the one that President Bush and his hatchet men portray him to be," Martinez said. Following the White House's lead, Kerry recently began airing Spanish-language ads.

el - Everbody wants a free and democratic Cuba. That is not the Castro regime. There is a question if the current isolation and pressure actually keeps Castro in power. Wouldn't closer contacts weaken Castro's hold?

Poll: Cuban Americans split on Kerry

Democrat John Kerry enjoys a commanding lead over President Bush among Cuban Americans born in the United States and a decided edge among Cubans who arrived in the country after 1980, according to a new poll of Miami-Dade Hispanics that reveals deep divisions within a community traditionally viewed as staunchly Republican.
But the poll, to be released today, shows Bush crushing Kerry among the largest -- and perhaps most politically active and vocal -- group of Cuban-American voters: those who arrived before the 1980 Mariel boatlift. Those voters -- who make up about two-thirds of all Cuban-American registered voters in Miami-Dade, according to the survey -- back the Republican incumbent overwhelmingly, 89 to 8 percent, with just 3 percent undecided.

Among all Cuban-American voters, Bush leads Kerry 69 to 21 percent, with 10 percent undecided -- a massive lead, but a decline from 2000 when more than eight of 10 Cuban Americans helped Bush narrowly defeat Al Gore in Florida and win the White House.

Kerry leads Bush 40 to 29 percent among Cubans who arrived in the United States after 1980, with 31 percent undecided.