Tuesday, February 05, 2008

Super Delegates To Determine Democratic Nominee

Democrats to have brokered convention. Almost mathematically impossible now for pledged primary delegates to determine the winner. This is a best guess by Chris Bowers based on the likely outcome today, almost a tie in pledged delegates between Clinton and Obama, but seems right to me. It also seemed possible to me before Edwards dropped out which was why I was disappointed in his decision to suspend his campaign. Having 10 to 15% of the delegates in a brokered convention is powerful.
Through a deadly combination of a primary calendar race to the bottom and an anachronistic method of delegate selection, we Democrats seem to have already arrived at that point. Short of one candidate dropping out, there is simply no easy way that this situation can be resolved. Given that Michigan and Florida combine for 313 pledged delegates, it is likely that this situation won't be resolved without severe bureaucratic fighting on the DNC rules and by-laws committee, or even a credential fight at the convention itself.

And why should either candidate drop out? Clinton has a large lead in super delegates, and can make a real argument over the Michigan and Florida delegations. Obama, by contrast, will probably lead in pledged delegates at the end of February, and will be able to raise significantly more money than Clinton. And so, we are at an impasse.
Booman agrees.

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