GOP Counting On 'Investor Class'

The Post survey and analysis found that Americans who have bought individual stocks -- "direct investors" -- are more optimistic about the economy, more likely to identify themselves as Republicans, have a more favorable view of the GOP and are more inclined to support Bush's reelection than are non-investors of comparable income.

Where Republicans strategists are wrong is in their assumption that less direct involvement in the market changes attitudes and party affiliation. The Post poll found that, once a person's income is taken into account, the political views of Americans whose only participation in the markets comes through contributions to a 401(k) retirement plan or an Individual Retirement Account (IRA) are not much different from those of non-investors.

Ruy Teixeira, a Democrat who has studied the demographic trends of the electorate, says the flaw in the Republican theory is that the investor class is simply too large and diverse to be remotely considered a homogenous group. Republicans are promoting their theory for parochial reasons, he said, because it fits with their assumption that anyone with a piece of ownership becomes more conservative (and therefore Republican) over time. "I'm skeptical of all that, for sure," he said.

Stanley B. Greenberg, a Democratic pollster, said he has done survey research attempting to understand the political behavior of the investor class but found no conclusions worth reporting.

"We couldn't find anything interesting to write about," he said. "It was a nonevent."

Greenberg also points to current trends to debunk Norquist and other conservatives. Over the past four months, he said, "The stock market has gone up and the president's support has gone down. Unemployment and disposable income are clearly more important [political indicators] than stock ownership."

Norquist disagreed. "If the unemployment rate is 6 percent and you're secure in your job, a 7 percent unemployment rate is not as big a threat to you as a drop in the Dow," he said.