Wages Up, Hours Down, Income Down, Taxes Down, Health Costs Up, Refinancing Up

Overall, the US looks like it should get a spurt of economic growth.

With the help of the money from refinancing and the tax cut, retail sales surged last month; Gap, Neiman Marcus, Nordstrom and other chains reported some of their best results since last year.

Laurence H. Meyer, an economist and a former Fed governor, estimates that the combination of tax cuts and bigger government spending, mostly for the military, essentially doubled the pace of economic growth in the third quarter, to 6 percent from 3 percent. But Mr. Meyer said that that effect is already wearing off and that the fiscal policy will actually become a drag on growth by the end of next year.

Interest rates are also likely to rise as the economy recovers, as John W. Snow, the Treasury secretary, pointed out in closely followed remarks last week. That could cause a big decline in mortgage refinancing.