Tuesday, April 20, 2004

Iraq Needs about 500,000 troops and 50,000 police for five years

Sunday Business Post -- James Dobbins, the Clinton administration's special envoy for Somalia, Haiti, Bosnia and Kosovo, and the Bush administration's special envoy for Afghanistan, recently summarised in Survival, the quarterly magazine of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, the lessons learned from nation-building in Japan, West Germany, Somalia, Haiti, Bosnia, Kosovo and Afghanistan for Iraq.

According to Dobbins, it will take up to 500,000 troops and about 50,000 police five years to ensure a reasonable democratic transition.

Artificial deadlines or premature elections have been found to be counterproductive to nation-building, according to Dobbins, who advocates holding local elections first and national elections later.

Dobbins believes there is a need for consultation and liaison with Iraq's neighbours, and notes the need to balance burden-sharing and `unity of command',with Kosovo as probably the best example of how to achieve same.

It is clear that the US does not have sufficient troops or the other necessary requirements for nation-building to achieve the right result for the people of Iraq on its own.

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