GOP Sees Gephardt and Midwest as Key To Election

washingtonpost.com: With the strongest union backing and deepest roots in the politically important industrial Midwest, Rep. Richard A. Gephardt (Mo.) is emerging as the Democratic presidential candidate many prominent Republicans fear the most in the 2004 elections.

As a note of caution, several GOP strategists recalled Republicans thinking Clinton would be the easiest to defeat in 1992, and Democrats eager for Ronald Reagan in 1980. They were the last two-term presidents.

Many Democrats do not agree with the GOP assessment of Gephardt's electability. The AFL-CIO has declined to endorse the Missouri lawmaker, despite his relentless courting, because several union leaders are not convinced Gephardt can win. In recent interviews in New Hampshire and Iowa, the two key early voting states, numerous Democratic voters have characterized Gephardt as stale, programmed and too closely affiliated with Washington. In Iowa, where Gephardt spends most of his time campaigning, Dean is doing as well or better in recent polls.

Bill McInturff, a GOP pollster, said he thinks Gephardt would be a weak candidate because he has called for a repeal of the Bush tax cuts. And Frank Luntz, a former GOP pollster who has conducted focus groups for MSNBC, said Gephardt "falls absolutely flat" with voters because he is seen as too political.

One of the main reasons many other Republicans fret about Gephardt is the electoral map, which many in the GOP say points to the Midwest as the region that will decide the presidency.