NH Poll puts Dean far in front of Kerry

The Union Leader and New Hampshire Sunday News -- Howard Dean has surged into a 40 percent to 17 percent lead over John Kerry, according to a new poll of likely New Hampshire primary voters.

Zogby and GOP strategist Thomas Rath agreed that Dean’s campaign would have to collapse for him to lose the primary on Jan. 27.

Dean drew 40 percent; Kerry, 17 percent; Wesley Clark and John Edwards, 6 percent each; Gephardt, 4 percent, and Joseph Lieberman, 3 percent. Al Sharpton, Dennis Kucinich and Carol Mosley Braun each drew less than 1 percent, while 19 percent of likely voters were undecided.

Zogby said Dean swept all demographic categories, leading among all age groups, among union and non-union voters, and among self-described progressives and liberals. He led Kerry 43 percent to 30 percent among Democrats, 35 percent to 11 percent among independents, and 34 percent to 14 percent among moderates.

In August, before the general entered the race, Dean led Kerry, 38 percent to 17 percent. But in late September, soon after Clark’s entry, Dean’s lead dropped to 30 percent to 20 percent with Clark third at 10 percent.

A month later, Clark is down to 6 percent and Dean’s lead is back up.

"Clark’s candidacy is starting to fizzle,” said Zogby, “and Kerry simply is not connecting.” He called Dean’s now reaching the 40 percent mark astonishing and said it was clear that the former Vermont governor is appealing to independents, including those who backed insurgent John McCain, winner of the 2000 GOP primary.

While cautioning that “anything can happen,” Zogby said, “Given where we stand now, it’s hard to see a way to stop Dean, especially if he has a strong showing in Iowa, which he very well may have.” Zogby likened him to Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan and McCain in his ability to bond with voters.

Rath said, "If Howard Dean gets something close to a smashing victory in Iowa, it won’t matter who finishes second in New Hampshire. If he puts those two together, with the number of primaries and caucuses immediately following New Hampshire, the nomination could be decided by next St. Patrick’s Day.”

EL - Note that this is the extremely conservative newspaper.