The Primary Race Right Now

The American Prospect - how the primaries look now.

My forecast -

DC................Dean and Sharpton (no committed)
Iowa.............Dean and Gephardt
NH................Dean and Kerry
SC.................Split 5 ways, Gephardt, Edwards leaders
Missouri........Gephardt, Dean
Arizona.........Dean and also rans
New Mexico..Dean, ???, and Kuchinach!
Delaware......Dean, Lieberman
Oklahoma......Dean, Clark, Gephardt
Overseas......Dean
(Kerry and Edwards possibly drop out)

Michigan........Dean,Gephardt,Clark
Washington...Dean, (Kuchinach will get some delegates)
Maine.............Dean
Tennessee......Clark, Gephardt, Dean
Virginia...........Clark, Dean, Gephardt
DC..................Dean, Sharpton, Braun, Clark
Nevada..........Dean, Clark, Gephardt
Wisconsin......Dean, Clark, Gephardt
Idaho............Clark, Gephardt, Dean
Utah..............Clark, Gephardt, Dean
Hawaii...........Dean, Clark, Gephardt

MARCH 2
California.......Dean (Kuchinach delegates)
New York.......Dean (Kuchinach delegates)
Ohio...............Dean (more delegates for Kuchinach)
Minnesota......Dean
Georgia..........Dean?
Vermont.........Dean
Mass..............Dean
Conn..............Dean
R.I..................Dean
Maryland........Dean
American Samoa...???

This should seal it for Dean and at this point Lieberman may drop out. He may stay through Florida if he has a chance at second. Braun should drop out. If Clark is doing relatively well he could pick up the anti-Dean faction, otherwise Gephardt. It will be pointed out that Gephardt has more economic liberal positions than Dean as the race narrows but that just hurts him trying to pick up moderate/conservative votes.

March 9
Texas.............Dean, Clark, Gephardt
Louisiana.......Dean, Clark, Gephardt
Mississippi......Clark, Dean, Gephardt
Florida............Dean, Clark, Lieberman, Gephardt
~~~~~~~
Kansas...........Gephardt, Clark, Dean
Illinois.............Dean, Clark, Gephardt

Later races will be over 50% Dean.

It is not clear if this gets Dean a majority of delegates on the first ballot. Probably, as the super-delegates will want to unify under one banner and Dean will be the proven best candidate.

Edwards, Sharpton, Kuchinach, Braun and Lieberman get to make speeches, everybody gets to make speeches, but they probably won't be shown except on cable.

The real speculation is on VP - Clark, Richardson, Graham, Edwards, Gephardt? It should be someone who helps the ticket against Bush which probably leaves out Feinstein, if Dean doesn't have California in the bag the race is over before it begins. Edwards doesn't add much unless he runs better than expected in the South. He is an inoffensive choice and gives better speeches than Graham. Gephardt is interesting as he has experience, labor, and the important MidWest roots. The general election will be decided in the MidWest. Richardson and Clark are the clear frontrunners at this point with Gephardt an interesting dark horse if he ceases his attack ads.

The Christian Liberation Front will probably try to blow up or gas the convention to make the world safe for King George but that's to be expected.