Isn't this early? Yes - so?
The race is Kerry's to lose. Bush has to make up the ground he's lost in recent months.
Greenberg - The Two America's - has polled a 4% drop in the groups that supported Bush last election which would clearly cost him the election now and lost him the popular vote last time. Greenberg predicts Karl Rove's response: "The White House probably has no choice but to fan the cultural flames to get more votes." So a nasty fight is coming after Labor Day.
Prediction Site by David Leip (nice maps) has the count right now at Dem 284 - Rep 254. Kerry carries New England and all the Yankee States, all the MidWest except Indiana, West Coast, Hawaii and New Mexico. Considering that there are some toss-up states I might place in the Kerry camp that are awarded to Bush that is encouraging.
Zogby had made my prediction earlier, that the race is Kerry's to lose and polling done by the 18th gives his lead as 320-218. Here is a Star-Tribune article discussing this interesting poll. This poll might be overstated as that was done by internet savvy respondents, who are more informed and thus more anti-Bush. That could be corrected in how the responses are handled but it is a difficult modeling job.
The site by a Bush supporter has, with tossup states,: Kerry 255 -Bush 227. He has the popular vote going the other way Bush 45.1%, Kerry 43.9%. His Classic page, only going by polling, has Kerry 327, Bush 211 with the tossups. I should add his blog to my intelligent but very wrong Republicans list. He nailed a very bad Dean moment which cost him Iowa, from another site. That moment greatly disturbed Janette who is a Dean fanactic.
Here are a couple more conservative sites tracking states.
Hedgehog report - Bush 296, Kerry 242, supposedly purely on last poll but has more polls than most.
Electoral College Bush 276 Kerry 262 from the "objective" and Kerry-bashing Washington Dispatch.
Here is where you can bet on who carries what state. It would have a bias toward Bush ($$$). Overall Bush winning 2004 is bid 56.2 ask 56.9.
National Rasmussen Polls has Bush 46 - Kerry 43. Some states are covered. It is a bit of an outlier on national, some have that reversed.
Kerry Surges ahead in 12 Swing States - from Zogby polling.
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