Thursday, September 11, 2008
Houston/Galveston doesn't like Ike - Evacuations likely to be called this morning
"It is very possible that Hurricane Ike will make landfall near Houston and Galveston Texas as a powerful 4 some time during early Saturday morning. A hurricane of this magnitude and strength will cause serious damage to these areas. A storm surge of over 20 feet is very likely, and capable of topping Galveston's sea wall. I know this may seem like the worst case scenario, but that is what likely to happen. It is strongly recommended that residents in these areas evacuate. Hurricane Ike will be steered primary by WNW by a high pressure system north of it. Subsequently as it reaches the ridge axis, a trough of low pressure will cause it to move more to the northwest."
I would strongly urge evacuations for the yellow and blue zones and possibly the purple. Unless you are handicapped or cannot survive without power for days evacuation is not recommended for the white areas unless you live in an unsafe structure like a trailer.
1 PM Update I was correct about the evacuations, the Houston mayor and Harris County have called for evacuations of the 1 and 2 areas I wrote above. I am in an evacuation area because of the possible storm surge. We will simply move to my father's on the Pasadena - Deer Park border.
- What should Texas residents do?
We must assume Ike will intensify to a Category 3 hurricane by landfall, which would likely do $20-$30 billion in damage. The chances of hundreds of people being killed in this storm is high if people do not heed evacuation orders to leave low-lying areas threatened by high storm surges. Ike's storm surge is going to be affect a huge area and be tremendously destructive.
Tracking/Forecast - Freeport and turns north to Harris County.
My friend Clif with his own model. "My predicted landfall has moved away from Victoria slightly, in this direction. I'm currently showing it east of Palacios and Collegeport but west of Matagorda, then heading northwards, west of Bay City, through Markham. I'm currently showing Ike coming ashore as just under a cat 4, but as a very strong cat 3."
Galveston this morning ordered a mandatory evacuation of the entire island - which should have been issued yesterday afternoon.