How Bad Is the Gallup Poll?

In 2000 Gallup had a 13 point Bush lead the week before the election. Four years ago, Gallup showed a wide Bush lead until the last two days, when they closed it to two points or so. They have wildly gyrating polls because of their poor method of choosing "likely voters."

Their "likely voters" now overstate Southern Whites and Republicans and understates minorities, young voters, and new voters. The internals of the national polls look disastrous for Bush.