A study has found that the method Gallup uses for its 'likely voters' is flawed and prone to wide swings in projected results that have no basis in reality (pdf). The questions Gallup uses to measure 'likely voters' overweights energized partisan voters. This election Bush's base voters are more energized everytime the more the emphasis is on Iraq where a large portion of Kerry's base has a lack of enthusiam for Kerry's position. A comparison of recent national polls show that the differences in how likely voters is determined is greatly affecting the results. In registered voters the polls agree with a tied race or Bush with a one or two point lead.
A more encouraging poll shows Kerry with a lead overall and with new voters, independent voters, and so-called undecided voters.
(This is the fourth time I have tried to post this. My previous posts were much longer more articulate. In the last few weeks either blogger or blogspot is not posting half the time. When it does post it frequently shows up more than once.)