A Tie

If the election was held today we might know who won until after court challenges - it is too close to call.

Here is the best electoral college calculations - the meta-analysis.

Bush leads Kerry by 0.7% (polls overstate incubents and the Republican party.)
Kerry 257 EV, Bush 281 EV

1. Flipping states: How much is the win probability affected by guaranteeing a given state? If Kerry wins Florida, then his overall win probability today jumps to 83% (five-to-one odds). If Bush wins Ohio then his win probability is 87% (eight-to-one odds).

2. Shifting the margin: What is the benefit of changing the margin by one point? You could imagine a campaign strategist making use of this to help decide where to place ads. For both candidates the three best states are Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania. No surprises there.

3. Hitting the streets: How much do you affect the election by going somewhere to get out the vote? The way to do this calculation is to see how much the Electoral College win probability is changed by incrementing a state's margin by some fraction F, where F is inversely proportional to the state's voting population. This is because as an individual, you can only get out a finite number of votes.

Today, the best states to go to, in descending order, are: Iowa, Ohio, Nevada, and Florida. Things change a little bit if sentiments shift (for instance towards Kerry because of the incumbent rule as described by the Mystery Pollster and Mark Shields), but the top four states always include Ohio and Nevada. Why Nevada? Nevada is a near-tossup and has a disproportionately high share of electoral votes.

Tie conditions continue, the outcome is driven mainly by Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida.

The incumbent rule: In 28 surveys involving presidential elections, 86% showed undecideds breaking mostly to the incumbentchallenger. In another study: In every case, the challenger(s) -- I include Ross Perot in 1992 and 1996 -- exceed their final poll result by at least 2 points, and the average gain is 4 points. At any given moment, the President's percentage of the vote relative to 50% is a better indicator of where the race stands than the margin separating Bush and Kerry.

Kerry won all three debates.

Ariana - Appealing To Our Lizard Brains: Why Bush Is Still Standing

Molly Ivins - Sometimes, I get the feeling the whole country is being run by Paris Hilton.

The elitist argument for the electoral college by George Will. America's federal system aims not merely for majority rule but for rule by certain kinds of majorities suited to this heterogeneous nation.