RealClear Politics
Leaderboard - BOLD where Dean should get delegates.
SC - Edwards
AZ - Kerry
Del - Dean*
MO - Dean*
NM - Dean*
OK - Clark
MI - Kerry
TN - Dean*
VA - Dean*
* Poll before Iowa, all are before NH results.
Wednesday, January 28, 2004
Iraqi's Threw Out The British in 1920 - Will The U.S. Be Next?
Whispers of "revolution" are growing louder in Baghdad this month at teahouses, public protests and tribal meetings as Iraqis point to the past as an omen for the future.
Iraqis remember 1920 as one of the most glorious moments in modern history, one followed by nearly eight decades of tumult. The bloody rebellion against British rule that year is memorialized in schoolbooks, monuments and mass-produced tapestries that hang in living rooms.
Now, many say there's an uncanny similarity with today: unpopular foreign occupiers, unelected governing bodies and unhappy residents eager for self-determination. The result could be another bloody uprising.
"We are now under occupation, and the best treatment for a wound is sometimes fire," said Najah al Najafi, a Shiite cleric who joined thousands of marchers at a recent demonstration where construction workers, tribal leaders and religious scholars spoke of 1920.
Sistani's representatives expect widespread civil disobedience and violence if elections are deemed impossible.
"They know what will happen if they do not listen to us," said Sabah al Khazali, a religious scholar who joined last week's demonstrations. "They know this is a warning."
To many Iraqis, today's U.S. occupation reads like an old play with modern characters: America as the new Britain, grenade-lobbing insurgents as the new opposition, and Ahmad Chalabi and other former exiles on the Governing Council as the new kings.
Ignoring Bush's Lies, Again
"I said in the run-up that Saddam was a grave and gathering danger, that's what I said. And I believed it then, and I know it was true now. And as Mr. Kay said, that Iraq was a dangerous place. And given the circumstances of September the 11th, given the fact that we're vulnerable to attack, this nation had to act for our security."
Leaving aside those incoherent references to "programs" and what the world obviously "felt," what is most notable in Bush's answer is that he again said Saddam "did not let us in." This is the second time he has made this weird statement, as if Hans Blix and UNMOVIC had never existed, nor conducted the most intrusive weapons inspections ever done in Iraq. (The first time was last July, when Bush said, in the presence of an astonished Kofi Annan: "And we gave [Saddam] a chance to allow the inspectors in, and he wouldn't let them in.")
How dare the press mock Howard Dean when they listen respectfully to this arrant lunacy?
Democracy Now! Questions Democrats About Previous Iraq WMD Claims
Amy Goodman is on their case. Howard Dean appeared honest. Kucinich and Sharpton were right - no evidence of WMDs.
Everyone else appeared to be typical politicians.
MyDoomB spreading, worse than first
A new version of the "Mydoom" e-mail worm that appeared on the Internet Wednesday makes it more difficult for computer users to download updated security software and instructs infected computers to attack Microsoft Corp.'s Internet homepage, security experts said.
The worm prevents victims from getting on Microsoft's Windows Update page, which hosts the company's latest software fixes and patches, as well as more than 60 other sites that contain anti-virus software. It also blocks Web site advertisements that are provided by Internet ad firm DoubleClick Inc.
Mydoom.B replaces the older version of itself on infected computers, said Tony Magallanez, a systems engineer with F-Secure Corp., an anti-virus company in San Jose, Calif. The first version punches a hole in the victim's Internet connection that allows attackers to take control of the computer or install malicious software.
Magallanez said that Mydoom.B does not require users with computers infected by the first version to click on a new attachment to activate it. Instead, Mydoom.B scans the Internet for infected computers and updates itself.
A one-two sucker punch. This will be bad.
Current Mydoom email virus worst ever
THE Mydoom computer virus is rapidly becoming the largest virus outbreak ever, and now accounts for one in every 12 emails sent.
Mydoom was overtaking the Sobig.F virus, clogging the internet with some 100 million infected emails in its first 36 hours and prompting the FBI to launch an investigation.
But analysts said that the slowing or crashing of computer networks may only be the start of the problems from the worm, which installs a program on infected computers allowing a hacker to take control and launch additional attacks.
The virus is programmed to launch denial of service attacks on the SCO Group, suggesting it could be linked to the company's legal action against Linux software.
He said virus uses "a very cleverly crafted social engineering trick," making the email appear to be error response or technical messages, inducing more users to open the virus attachment that causes it to spread further.
DON't open error messages with attachments
Copying Frontrunner Kerry, Dean Shakes Up Staff
Trippi is Out, Gore associate is in
Howard Dean shook up his presidential campaign on Wednesday after absorbing back-to-back defeats, replacing his campaign manager with a longtime associate of former Vice President Al Gore to try and stabilize his faltering candidacy.
"Governor Dean asked Roy Neel to join the campaign CEO and Joe Trippi resigned as campaign manager," said Dean campaign spokeswoman Tricia Enright.
Dean offered Trippi a spot on the payroll as a senior adviser, a source said, but he decided to quit the campaign rather than accept the demotion.
In the call with lawmakers, Dean expressed his determination to remain in the race, and said he hopes to finish at least second in the upcoming round of primaries and caucuses.
At the same time, several lawmakers bluntly told the former Vermont governor that he needed to demonstrate his ability to win somewhere -- and that second place wouldn't suffice. "He said he understood," said one lawmaker who was involved in the call.
"This is a great campaign to change the country," he said. "I regret anything I may have done to let down the hundreds of thousands of people who support Howard Dean. I hope they will stay with Howard Dean. This campaign can change the country."
In a sign of Dean's money woes, he staff was asked Wednesday to defer their salaries for two weeks.
Don’t count out Howard Dean
MSNBC - New Hampshire may already have narrowed the race to a two-man battle for the nomination: Kerry versus Dean. They remain the only two with the money and the organization to fight the long war for Democratic delegates. But there is one giant difference between the two campaigns. The diehard Deanies, unlike the Kerry stalwarts, must still overcome the voters’ doubts about their candidate.
They were there as Dean poured hot coffee for his freezing New Hampshire fans outside a polling center Tuesday. “Last night was fabulous,” Jo-Ellen Thornton told the former governor, referring to his fired-up town hall meeting in Exeter. “You were back to your old self. We just lost you for a couple of days.” With precious little time before the next showdown, the Deaniacs can’t afford to lose him again.
Dean hitting his stride...
Dean's Stump Speech Is Impressive Again
Dean's head appears to finally back where it should be. And by "back" I mean, of course, that he's looking forward again.
Dean Vows He Won't Scale Back Campaign
NEDRA PICKLER - "We're going to try everywhere," he told The Associated Press. "We've got a hard — we've got a strategy and a good organization to win everywhere and we're going to try to get as many delegates as we can everywhere."
Dean acknowledged disagreement on his staff about how the one-time front-runner should proceed as they approach next Tuesday's seven primaries and caucuses, with 269 Democratic National Convention delegates at stake.
Several aides want him to concentrate his attention on one or two of the seven states holding primaries and caucuses next Tuesday, New Mexico and Arizona deemed the most promising. Under this plan, Dean would make minimal effort in the other five states, and save his resources for contests in Michigan, Washington and Wisconsin later in the month.
An exit poll conducted for The Associated Press by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International showed Dean was very strong among New Hampshire voters who consider themselves very liberal, were opposed to the war, were angry at Bush, and who thought the most important candidate quality was standing up for what they believe in. He lagged behind Kerry among voters who most wanted a candidate who could beat Bush and a candidate who had the most experience.
One-third of voters said they do not think Dean has the temperament to be president.
While Kerry had a 3-to-1 lead among those who decided in the last week, Dean and Kerry were about even among those who decided in the last three days, suggesting Dean was able to stop his slide.
10 Things You Learn From NH
Capital Games - David Corn
1. Performance doesn't matter.
2. Screaming is bad.
3. Not hot enough is better than too hot.
4. Unions can help only so much.
5. Early results are just that.
6. In politics, it is easy to get away with plagiarism. Unless you're Senator Joe Biden. His campaign was derailed in 1988 when it was discovered he had lifted a speech line from a British politician. But this year, the candidates readily stole rhetoric from another--with Dean being the victim of most of the theft. His rap against the special interests was lifted by Kerry, Edwards, and retired General Wesley Clark. (Senator Joseph Lieberman, though, wouldn't touch it, and Representative Dennis Kucinich had his own version.) In New Hampshire, it was hard to keep track of who said what about HMOs, insurance companies, pharmaceutical manufacturers, energy firms because they all were saying the same thing. And they all assailed Washington lobbyists and proposed similar-sounding measures for reducing the influence of lobbyists. Dean tried on occasion to note that he had been the first in this campaign to crusade against special interests and that the others had jumped aboard the train once they saw the results he had achieved. But Dean did not beat that drum too loudly. This sort of argument is hard to make without sounding bitter and petty.
7. The war in Iraq still does not matter.
8. There's a Northern yearning for a Southerner. The combined votes for Edwards and Clark nearly equaled Dean's total.
9. Don't enter a presidential race late.
10. Voters don't want boldness.
el - Voters want reassurance.
At the Dean Rally In NH
Talking Points Memo -- I don’t know how it seemed on television (you have me at a disadvantage on that one). But in person he seemed strong and commanding, hitting each of the key points he’s been working over the last week. And though the crowd seemed subdued for most of the evening, they were electrified by Dean, with shouting and cheering and foot-stomping all through his speech.
When it was over, the reporter standing next to me, turned and said: "If he would have given this speech last week, this would be a very different story."
el - Dean has been misrepresented and pounded on and pounded on for months. For what? For being right and telling the truth. If he is not elected he is probably going to come back as a Senator. No matter what happens in the election he is not going to go away.
Beating Bush is Only Goal - No 3rd Party National Vote
Winning nationally is what matters in 2004. The goal has to be beating George W. Bush and helping the Democrats retake the Senate and House of Representatives so that we can bring to an end the Republican stranglehold on the federal government and ensure some semblance of citizen involvement.
The reasons are pretty basic:
1. Truth is not Bush's strong suit.
2. The Bush administration is the most overtly, fanatically and aggressively partisan in recent memory.
3. The war in Iraq.
4. Bush's raging unilateralism.
5. The environment.
6. The economy.
7. Right-wing judges.
8. John Ashcroft and the USA PATRIOT Act.
9. Crony capitalism.
10. The First Amendment.
The best way to deal with these issues is to find a Democrat willing to take on the president and for progressives to get in the trenches and help and not to sidetrack the debate by fragmenting the opposition to Bush.
Keep in mind the history of third party movements, especially at the national level. Rarely do they poll more than a handful of votes, and when they do they tend only to play the spoiler role, handing elections to candidates with political agendas radically different than their own.
So while I remain an advocate for third parties, I've come to realize that my idealism is misplaced in a larger system that ensures they remain at the margins. The system, as currently constituted, is rigged against third-party candidates -- whether Green, Reform, Libertarian or other. Voting for the Green candidate for higher office too often means stealing a vote from the more progressive of the two major party candidates and giving the election to the more conservative one -- generally the Republican. That seems ridiculously counterproductive.
Until we make some changes in the system itself I have to make the pragmatic choice and cast a negative vote against President Bush and hope for the best. -- The Populist
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