A Pretty Pathetic Victory for Bush

From Another Liberal Blog

Assuming Bush gets New Mexico and Iowa, he will have gotten the lowest percentage of electoral votes (54%) of any incumbent running for reelection since Wilson. If those two states should swing Kerry's way (NM might), it'll be even lower.

He will have won with the lowest percentage of the popular vote (51%) of any incumbent running for reelection since Truman (well, technically since Clinton, but he also ran against Perot, who was a more significant 3rd-party candidate than Thurmond and Wallace were in '48)

He will have won by the lowest margin of the popular vote (3.5M) of any incumbent running for reelection since Truman (2.1M, and back then only 50M voted).

So, this is NOT a smashing incumbent victory like those of Clinton, Reagan, Nixon, LBJ or FDR. It was a bit pitiful for an incumbent, frankly, especially after 9/11. There's really no mandate here; this is still basically a 50-50 country, and we'll live to fight and win another day.

Things Improving in Texas According to Dem Chair

For the first time in 32 years we have gained ground in the legislature. Since 1972 we have lost seats or just barely held our ground. This year we gained 1 seat and we won it in the best way possible- the 20 year incumbent House Appropriations Chair, Talmadge Heflin, was defeated by Hubert Vo. Heflin is the architect of the plan that cut more than 150,000 kids off of their health insurance and has shown a callousness toward the people of Texas that would make Tom DeLay blush. Hubert Vo beat him with a great campaign and the people of Texas will benefit.

We also defeated 2 of the freshmen GOPers who were at the center of the TRMPAC scandal- Jack Stick lost to Mark Strama in Austin and Ken Mercer lost to David Leibowitz in San Antonio.

In Dallas County we elected a Democratic sheriff- Lupe Valdez, the first female sheriff of Dallas County. (el - I will add the first openly gay county official in Texas - a Dallas gay female sheriif, imagine that.)

And our number of base Democratic voters went up by 6 points since 2002. If we can do that again between now and 2006 we will sweep this state in a landslide.

Election Thoughts

Been tired and thinking.

I worked as an election alternate judge in a heavily Republican precinct this election. Long hours for low pay but we had very few problems

Problems: A booth control unit in the morning suddenly had a smell of ozone and we had to renumber it's half of the booths but it did not lose the one voter's code who was preparing to vote or lose the votes already cast. After I assigned the booth numbers again no problems. I was aware of one person who apparently managed to cast a blank ballot - you have to hit cast ballot five times without a selection for that to happen. There were probably more, the highest election (for President) had only 857 votes out of 874 cast ballots.) This precinct had 850 early voters as well as the 874 Tuesday, less than 60% turnout. We had four provisional ballots, one or two which should count and the others which won't. The GOP county clerks office eliminated voters from the list who had the same name at the same address, ignoring the birth dates. Two people were not from our precinct, had not changed voter registrations in time, one from out of state. Another voter should have been a provisional ballot but the elections office let her cast a regular ballot after her mail-in ballot did not come in the mail but her husband's did.

Analysis of this precinct: 64% straight ticket - over two to one straight ticket Republicans over Democrats. Sixty-one percent of Bush's votes were from straight tickets, seventy-three percent of Kerry's. Bush with seventy-one percent. In contrast seventy-two percent of DeLay's vote came from straight ticket voting while only sixty-two percent of Democrat's Richard Morrison. DeLay did much worse than the President, only 28% of his vote in my precinct came from people taking the time to choose him, but with a GOP rout this was not enough for Morrison.

The national election. I got home early, by 8:30 PM which is very early mostly because I didn't have to return the equipment. I would watch the returns for a few hours then sleep for a couple hours and do this all night long. Seemed like a long nightmare.

ANALYSIS - Over a year ago I didn't support John Kerry because I knew a Massachusetts liberal could not take a Southern state or a rural plains state. I chose to support Dean because he was conservative, plain-spoken, honest and anti-Iraq war. Other acceptable choices would have been anyone who I thought could win, Edwards, Clark, Gephardt, or Graham. Dean was driven from the race by the national media and Washington insiders and was finished after an ad war with Gephardt in Iowa. In the primaries the Democratic party became convinced that Kerry could win despite being a Massachusetts liberal because of his Vietnam war record. They didn't see that his anti-war record would be the issue in the South or the Swift Boat liars.

The surprising thing about this election, besides the continued descent of the Republican insiders into the worst lies and political dirty tricks, was that Kerry almost pulled it off. Final results are not in yet but a wartime president was held to 52% and a change of 100,000 votes in Ohio it would be President-elect Kerry. The Democrats also might have been better even to have Gephardt on the ticket as VP for the Midwest states. Edward's charisma, speech, and message was not on display often enough to swing many voters.

The worst thing is that with Kerry on the ticket the GOP swept the Southern Democratic Senators and consolidated their hold on the South.

Was the Election Legit? I had some questions at first but am now leaning that it was. If there was fraud it was the sophisticated black box fraud I have been worried about - a program that switches one in twenty votes by county in the tabulators. I would demand an audit in a county like Dade in Florida and compete the paper totals for Kerry from precinct machines with the county tabulator totals. If the GOP had done that in Ohio and Florida where the polls disagree you could not tell except with a county audit like that. Here is some analysis without looking at the paper trail on the precinct machines. Meta Analysis is looking at the polls.

What now? Build local, decide what the Democratic message is, I think fiscal responsibility and the party of clean government against corporate welfare is a start. As Josh Marshall states we must start to build the same infrastructure that the GOP now has to be competitive. As Maureen Dowd warns this crowd in power now has already overreached and been rewarded - what now? I would add maybe the Democrats should do some overreaching themselves. Progress is made by liberals who work. Religious values can lead to tolerance, not prejudice. Locally I know two local women who should run for office, one is going to but needs to moderate her positions to gain a majority and the other doesn't want to. Democrats could gain a Senate seat or the Lt. Gov. office if "Fighting Grandma" Strayhorn switches parties which seems likely to me. She has some positions Democrats and Independents would get behind - fiscally responsible but concerned for kids. Still has crossover with Texas religious groups. One thing Southern Democrats have to do is take fewer positions which are portrayed as pandering to their constituents and link their positions to American Democratic values. Learn how to fram the debate. Thom Hartman reviews some material on that.

Texas Voter Bill of Rights

Voting is the most direct way for you to affect your government -- don't let anyone deprive you of this precious right! Read through the list below and be aware of your rights before you go to the polls, and use the information below if you encounter any harassment or intimidation.

* You are entitled to vote without being harassed or intimidated by anyone.

* Bring personal identification with you to the polls (driver's license, government ID, bank statement or utility bill).

* If you forget your ID, you can still vote. (All you need to do is sign an affidavit or you can vote by provisional ballot. Try to avoid this route, as these ballots could take 1-5 days to be counted!). Better yet—DON’T FORGET YOUR ID!

* If records show you have moved, you can vote by signing an address confirmation.

* If you are in line at the polling place before the polls close, you can vote.

* You have the right to receive a demonstration of voting equipment before voting.

* If you are disabled, or are over the age of 65, or are having difficulties, you have the right to an accessible polling place and help in voting.

If anyone challenges your right to vote:

* Ask for the name of the person who is denying you the right to vote and write it down.
* Ask to talk to a supervisor and lodge a complaint or call the Harris County Election’s Office at: 713-368-POLL (7055)
* Call the Harris County Democratic Party at 713-802-0085 and report your complaint.

Election Protection Hotline:
1-866-MYVOTE1 to report problems
1-866-OUR-VOTE (1-866-687-8683) for immediate legal assistance

Employees who do not have two hours before or after work to vote may take leave to vote.
Employees are entitled to paid leave.
Source: Texas Election Code § 276.004.

Find your voting location in Harris County with just your name or precinct number.

Kerry Winning

A new statistical study puts a Kerry Win at over 98% probability. Lots of charts in the links.

Another study gives the poll analysis that has Kerry at 311 EV.

Reports on left-leaning sites (from comments and dairies) that the PAX network and Sinclair Broadcasting are running versions of "Stolen Honor" the Kerry smear ad, all over the country. By the stealth method they are running, claiming it is an infomercial, the GOP kept it out of mainstream political discourse this weekend. Call 1-800-NEWSMAX to talk about it on their dime.

Tucker Carlson and many of the smarter conservatives are pretty much conceding the election to Kerry. Fox News this Sunday talks about their poll showing a tie but their scrawl shows a 1% Kerry lead. Reports of huge turnouts in Democratic counties, up 50 to 200% from 2000, modest increases in GOP counties. A report out of Florida has Kerry at a double digit lead in early voting. This after the Florida GOP party urged all Republicans to vote early. The slant from the far right conservatives is that the media is biased against Bush and starting to claim registration and vote fraud. (Registration fraud like their trashing of Democratic registrations? Somehow it is not mentioned except one top GOP official defending it!) Hitchins has given a different presidential endorsement in each of three publications he writes for - 2 for Bush, 1 for Kerry.

ADDED - The Counter to Stolen Honor, Going Upriver. is converting college campuses.

Bush Planned to Invade Iraq before election. Claims his father lost because he wasn't a war president. This is from two conservative journalists. Also note the typical Bush teams smears against one journalist not sufficiently loyal should cause the journalist to reconsider other peoples stories of being smeared by Bush.

- Bush admitted that he failed to fulfill his Vietnam-era domestic National Guard service obligation, but claimed that he had been “excused.” This contradicts recent stories.

- Bush revealed that after he left his Texas National Guard unit in 1972 under murky circumstances, he never piloted a plane again. Several Bush instances where he had said otherwise.

“He told me that as a leader, you can never admit to a mistake,” Herskowitz said. “That was one of the keys to being a leader.”

Twelve ways the GOP is now stealing the Ohio vote

Should Kerry go after the GOP moderates these last two days? Bush has failed them by fiscal irresponsibility, religious extremism, overt imperialism, raising partisanship instead of fostering bi-partisanship, and favoring Wall Street over Main Street.

Latest right-wing talk radio lunacy. They are attacking Teresa Heinz Kerry for paying less than 13% of her income in taxes. This rate is a result of the Bush tax cut cult for millionaires lowering the dividend rate to 15%. If they object to this why aren't they blaming Bush for the tax cuts? The person who pays the taxes isn't to blame , the person who created the tax rates is. Of course, they don't really object to this. This is just another faux indignation the GOP talking points creators thought up.

Bush even losing military

My nephew Troy, the sergeant in the Rangers, has decided to vote for Kerry. Last time I talked to him he was a big Bush fan, pro-Iraq war. A year in Iraq and seeing friends die can change your mind. Coming back and seeing Republicans saying that the newspapers and media are not showing the good news from Iraq when he knew there is no good news in Iraq changed his mind.

Like my sister, despite his pro-life position, he feels compelled to vote Democratic. He says except for a couple issues like abortion he might be called a liberal now. A large number of the others in the military feel the same way.

Bearing False Witness Campaign Hits Airwaves

October Surprise?

NEWSMAX, the Richard Mellon Scaife-funded conservative "news" organization is purchasing large blogs of TV time to run scurrilous attack ads on Senator Kerry. The ads feature conservative veterans calling Kerry a traitor responsible for the torture and dishonor of fellow American soldiers in Vietnam as well as extending the length of the war.

The time is purchased as infomercial time but is just a large portion of "Stolen Honor" the "documentary" by an employee of the conservative Washington Times with an occasional banner overlay listing a 1-800 number to buy the documentary.

In the Houston area I spotted this running on Saturday 2:30 to 3:00 PM on a PAX (Christian family programming) network station.

The phone number they are paying for to take orders is 1-800-NEWSMAX. A number for my local PAX station KPXB that ran shortly afterwards is 713-533-5303. Perhaps a lot of polite calls to these numbers protesting the dishonorable shameful attacks that violate the ninth commandment against bearing false witness might be appropriate.

Four Years Ago

CNN 2000 Tracking poll: Bush leads Gore by 5 points, 2 days before election

How you can help Kerry now - VOTERCall.org. Call new voters in swing states.

Non-partisan groups across America have registered over 2 million new young, low income and minority voters for the 2004 elections. If all these people vote, they can have a powerfully progressive impact on American democracy, compelling our leaders to bring greater justice to our country, and peace to the world. Experts agree that calling voters can make all the difference between them voting and not voting. Register to call voters now!

Ft. Bend GOP Precinct Judge Urges Voters to Dump DeLay

Bev's Burner - Fort Bend/Southwest Star - Oct. 27, 2004
by B.K. "Bev" Carter

It won't kill you....

Come on, It really won't hurt too much. I promise that parts of your body will not fall off. That's right! You, too, can vote for Democrat Richard Morrison to replace that scoundrel Tom DeLay.

In my weekly column last week, I admonished you to find and recruit someone in the next two years to run against Tom DeLay in the Republican primary. However, I've had second thoughts about that. I was wrong. Most of the people who vote in primaries are the party hardy voters. They'd vote for DeLay because they are used to voting for DeLay and sadly, the Fort Bend Republican Party has been highjacked by the Christian Right (which are neither), and DeLay plays to them. A friend of mine admitted to me that she had early voted for DeLay before reading my column. "Why did you do that?" I asked because I knew that she was aware of some of DeLay's more villainous actions. "Habit," she replied.

So it is my belief that the only way we can rid ourselves of this DeLay pest is to hold our nose and cross over and at least vote on the Democrat side of the ballot for Richard Morrison as our U.S. Congressman.

A Little About Morrison...

... cut for length

Why I can't support Teflon Tom...

Tom DeLay has almost single-handedly made the Republican party the party of derisive action. He has turned his governance over to the very lobbyists that are only interested in their own industry. Our "Teflon Tom" belongs to the school of "leave no CEO behind." He has woven a cloudy group of money, lobbying, and grass-roots true believers that push right-wing pressure on the entire Republican agenda and therefore on the country's agenda. These true believers are ideological extremist. (sp)

This far-flung network is composed of money pockets that are state or federal PAC's, direct-mail operations, partisan right-wing religious groups that have aggressive sounding acronyms like ARM, ROMP, STOMP. They sound suspiciously like the off books entities created by Enron, don't they?

DeLay has been rebuked by the House Ethics Committee three times overall, two times in the last ten days. These admonishments are unusual for any legislator, especially one who wants to be speaker of the House. Some watchdog groups have called for him to resign.

The 62-page Ethics Committee report chastised DeLay for trading support for the congressional candidacy of the son of retiring Rep. Nick Smith, R-Mich., in exchange for Smith's vote on Bush's Medicare Bill, for asking federal aviation officials to track an airplane involved in a Texas political spat, and for conduct that suggested political donations might influence legislative action.

Yet, in a press conference reminiscent of "Baghdad Bob,' DeLay applauded the admonishments and said they proved he was clean. He said, "I'm very pleased that the ethics committee and these honorable people that serve on that ethics committee have dismissed the frivolous charges brought against me." Talk about spin. They didn't dismiss the charges. They admonished him.

Tom has openly declared himself sent by God to "stand up for a biblical world view in everything I do and everywhere I am." For him, politics is a "battle of souls." He says that he seeks a "God-centered" nation that, among other things, would curb contraception, discriminate against homosexuals, outlaw abortion, end the separation of church and state, and post the Ten Commandments in every school (even though Tom has violated more than a few of the Ten himself).

He states that "our nation will only be healed through a rebirth of religious conviction and moral certitude." The thing that concerns me is that this biblical world view sounds suspiciously like the "end times" prophets and I don't really like someone who wants to see the end of the world be the same someone with the power to affect (sp?) the end of the world.

Tom DeLay has been in Washington the past 20 years and in Austin the six years before that. The framers of both the U.S. Constitution and the Texas Constitution did not intend that serving in the body politik would be a full-time, lifetime occupation. They expected volunteers to serve for a few years then go back home and work a real job.

I think it is time to send DeLay out to get a real job.

Her current column above not up yet but this is prior week DeLay bash.

I don't know if a majority of Fort Bend residents can bring themselves to vote for Democrat Richard Morrison this time. But I'm serving notice on you that if not this year, then we MUST recruit a viable Republican before the next primary. I can't believe we can't find some Republican with enough guts to take on this little Napoleon. After all, "He's five foot seven in high heels and he can kiss my a-- "

*Editor's note: Although I am a Republican precinct chair, I am reminded of what John F. Kennedy said many years ago: "Sometimes party loyalty requires too much."

O'Reilly Pays Millions For Phone Rape and other news

O'Reilly to pay $2 to $10 million to subordinate he subjected to repeated sexual calls while masturbating. Sales of the O'Reilly Factor for Kids book has slowed.

Why don't I deserve a secret service visit? A live journal poster was visited by the Secret Service over comments she had about the President on her journal. I think W is the worst unelected President in American history who deserves to be tar-and-feathered and tossed in a Crawford briar and cactus patch. I want to tell that to the FBI and the Secret Service.

SALON: Image analysis by NASA scientist reveals Bush wore electronic device in debates.

General Clark: "Today George W. Bush made a very compelling and thoughtful argument for why he should not be reelected. In his own words, he told the American people that "...a political candidate who jumps to conclusions without knowing the facts is not a person you want as your Commander in Chief."

"President Bush couldn't be more right. He jumped to conclusions about any connection between Saddam Hussein and 911. He jumped to conclusions about weapons of mass destruction. He jumped to conclusions about the mission being accomplished. He jumped to conclusions about how we had enough troops on the ground to win the peace. And because he jumped to conclusions, terrorists and insurgents in Iraq may very well have their hands on powerful explosives to attack our troops, we are stuck in Iraq without a plan to win the peace, and Americans are less safe both at home and abroad."

Krugman - It's not just Al Qaqaa, Bush incompetence and mendacity can no longer be hidden.

The Right To Vote

I went to election judge training the other day. I was surprised, but shouldn't have been, at the Republicans in the audience who loudly objected to allowing people to vote. The only people they thought should be allowed to vote should come in with a voter's registration card. (They seemed to also feel they should have probably lived in the neighborhood for years and have lots of money.) "Why do we allow people to vote with just a drivers license even if they are on the voter roll?"

The GOP administrators also had a scornful attitude toward the Department of Justice and Congress for not allowing them to hold the election however they wanted and for requiring procedures to ensure a fair vote. The e-vote trainer also repeatedly warned people to keep the media out, to keep politicians out, and to make poll-watchers jobs difficult.

Thom Hartman is on fire and I am sure is making thousands of new fans on CSPAN. CSPAN has been broadcasting talk radio shows all week. Thom is a liberal Limbaugh with passionate arguments for democracy but unlike Limbaugh has reasonable broadcasts. Hartman is polite and manages to be enthusiastically liberal without being shrill. Lots of facts and lots of respect for viewers opinions. A great patriot who I liked before he had a radio show.

Ashcroft trying to limit vote in states.

Four years ago today Gallup had Bush with a 7% lead. Bush actually lost by 0.5%.

There is still time to volunteer to drive people to the polls and help campaigns. Good Democrats don't vote alone, grab your friends. If you can't contribute money, go make phone calls or volunteer for election day. There are lots of little jobs around in the campaigns and the parties.

Local Texas races from Off the Kuff

TODAY IS LAST DAY OF EARLY TEXAS VOTING

(Later - over 400,000 early voters this year - 240,000 in 2000 for Harris County.)

For over six months Bush has been attacking Kerry. This would be crazy for any President but this one. Only if you don't have a record to stand on you do you run an entire campaign against your opponent and with no plan for the future.

False Reality Campaign

Massive Spin Job Misleading American Voters

They spin the media and the media spins the voters.

CNN proves the explosives were at al Qaqaa, confirmed by Bush's weapons inspector, but then follows the GOP line that they were removed before the invasion.

The Rove Campaign: (1) Getting in front of media interpretation of a controversy in a way that reshapes public perceptions of the actual event, and sticking with the spin come hell or high water. (2) Deliberately pursuing outrageous tactics and then using the opposition's outrage to establish a false moral equivalency. Presently this is being used in GOP block the vote efforts.

US troops refused requests to protect explosives store

Revealed: War has cost 100,000 Iraqi lives

Mohammed Hamid Abdullah, from Yusufiah, 30 miles south of Baghdad, where al-Qaqa'a is located, said: "I know the Americans were told what was in the factories, and they must protect it. But they said they had to go on to Baghdad. We all saw people go in there afterwards and take everything they could. It went on for days."

This is the bearing false witness campaign of the bearing false witness president.

Thom Hartman, Uncommon Sense from the Radical Middle is on CSPAN right now with Independent Vermont Congressman Bernie Sanders.
Highly recommended.

A new report this morning states that White House is planning to seek another $70 billion in emergency funding for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan early next year, bringing the total cost close to $225 billion.

Bush trying to end NAACP tax-exempt status.

I saw on CSPAN David Cobb, Green Party candidate for President. A terrific person and I support his platform 100%. Why am I not voting for him? Third parties should devote their energy to reforming one of the two major parties.

Dowd - White House of Horrors!

Jewish voters especially should watch this

Church and State Bush Flash

Fox News Whining in Advance of Bush Defeat and other news

Premature Ejaculation
James Wolcott tunes into Fox News and hears four instances of them whining about "liberal media bias."

There are no coincidences at Fox News. Three times today, and the day is still relatively young, Fox hit the note of liberal bias to sound the theme that the press is "in the tank" for Kerry, and that any victory he gets will be a tainted gift from the media elite.

I'm not saying Fox News is anticipating a Bush loss, only that they seem to be laying the ground work for the blame game should he cough it up on November 2nd. They are taking the first baby steps to denying the legitimacy of a Kerry win, preparing the first batch of sour grapes.

P.S... Again, there are no coincidences. [The head of Fox News and former Nixon speechwriter] Roger Ailes claps his hands and the monkeys go into their little dance.

Amy Sullivan - Faith Without Works
After four years, the president's faith-based policies have proven to be neither compassionate nor conservative. For example, the White House tossed out allowing all taxpayers to deduct charitable giving and instead eliminated the estate tax and lowered tax rates for the wealthy for purely political purposes.

Ayelish McGarvey - As God Is His Witness
Bush is no devout evangelical. In fact, he may not be a Christian at all.

Ironically for a man who once famously named Jesus as his favorite political philosopher during a campaign debate, it is remarkably difficult to pinpoint a single instance wherein Christian teaching has won out over partisan politics in the Bush White House. Though Bush easily weaves Christian language and themes into his political communication, empty religious jargon is no substitute for a bedrock faith. Even little children in Sunday school know that Jesus taught his disciples to live according to his commandments, not simply to talk about them a lot... the Ninth Commandment admonishes, “Thou shalt not bear false testimony against thy neighbor.” God wasn’t joking around there. But time and again, Bush and Rove have relied on repugnant lies to discredit their opponents.

Molly Ivins on Right Talk
"The great triumph of the political right in this country has been the creation of a network of alternative media. There are people who listen to Rush Limbaugh for more hours every day than the Branch Davidians listened to David Koresh."

The Takeover by the Religious Right of the Republican Party

The Daily Howler on very strange right wing debates of Bush's religion

Where will your job be with $10.00 gas? Life after the Oil Crash.

Interesting
Fahrenheit 9-11 FRESH 85% Positive reviews "It is worth seeing, debating and thinking about, regardless of your political allegiances."

Celsius 41.11 ROTTEN Only 15% Positive Reviews "The new documentary film Celsius 41.11 represents another unconvincing effort on the part of conservatives to mount a viable critique of Michael Moore."

Another Stastical Prediction of Kerry Win

Using a different method of stastical regression another poll site is showing a narrow Kerry win in the electoral college.

Chart and Map. In addition to the narrow Kerry victory seven states have Bush leads of less than 2%.

My previous statistics site is Princeton Professor Sam Wang's which currently predicts a Democratic victory when allocating undecided voters: Kerry 307, Bush 231.

Texas Vote Machine Flaw Benefits Bush

After early voting on the electronic E-slates started in Texas a few people have noticed a problem. They made the first choice to vote a straight Democratic ticket but when they checked the summary page it had all the Democratic candidates selected, except for John Kerry. It had recorded a vote for Bush.

After review the elections division is blaming this on voter error. They were first saying that while flipping through the electronic pages of the ballot voters must accidently be pressing enter for Bush. It now appears to be a less obvious flaw in the machines.

If a voter presses the enter key twice quickly to vote a straight ticket the second enter is interpreted as a vote for the first candidate on the next page even if that page had not appeared yet. It takes a second and a half before the second page appears. The first candidate after the straight ticket is Bush. Hitting the enter key twice to vote the straight democratic ticket casts a vote for Bush/Cheney.

The lesson is don't hit cast ballot until you have reviewed your selections and gone back and made changes if necessary.

The other lesson is isn't it funny how these little flaws benefit the GOP.

This story appears to be an exclusive to me online.


Unrelated - AWOL Bush.

The 962 reason code for lt. Bush being removed from active duty has been found. It is change of address. This is odd but another mystery cleared up. His change of address was moving to Boston where he did not report to continue his national guard duties as required under regulations. See previous posts on AWOL Bush.

AP - New Bush Guard Papers Leave Questions

Unearthed under legal pressure, three-decade-old documents portray President Bush as a capable and well-liked Air National Guard pilot who stopped flying and attending regular drills two-thirds of the way through his six-year commitment — without consequence.

Texas Newspaper Endorsement of Kerry

My greatest concern about this election is the fierce polarization that has split our country, and I pray that an endorsement from us does not feed that division locally.

We've known and liked George Bush for years. As governor, he visited and impressed our Editorial Board several times. As a reporter, I covered some of his local visits and always found him to be likable, easy-going and informed.

Bush was a strong and effective leader of our state. We supported him as governor, and I'm sure we would have endorsed him independently in 2000 even if Scripps hadn't had the corporate-wide policy at the time. But as outlined in our editorial today, we've not seen those traits in his performance as president, and are increasingly alarmed at the direction he is taking the country.

For Texans familiar with Gov. George W. Bush's bipartisan successes in Austin, this failure by the president to reach across party lines, this failure to capitalize on a national yearning for unity in the wake of 9/11, has been a huge disappointment.

May Require Registration.

Bush Non-Reality Campaign Starting to Sweat

Buried in this WP lackluster story is the news that the Bush campaign is very worried - he is not winning in the states he needs.

GOP officials who talked to Bush-Cheney campaign leaders said the leaders have grown more worried about Ohio, Florida and other key states where Bush lacks a lead with just 10 days until the election. One Republican official described the mood at the top of the campaign as apprehensive. " 'Grim' is too strong," the official said. "If we feel this way a week from now, that will be grim."

It was the third time in eight days that Bush had devoted an entire day to campaigning in Florida, and the dramatic stagecraft underscored the conclusion of his aides that -- as in 2000 -- the election will come down to Florida.

The Republican official said polling for Bush showed him in a weaker position than some published polls have indicated, both nationally and in battlegrounds. In many of the key states, the official said, Bush is below 50 percent, and he is ahead or behind within the margin of sampling error -- a statistical tie.

"There's just no place where they're polling outside the margin of error so they can say, 'We have this state,' " the official said. "And they know that an incumbent needs to be outside the margin of error."

As typical with the Washington Post they bury this inside the paper and have a misleading headline and opening paragraphs. They have Dana Milbank, who I consider along with Pincus their best reporter doing little odds and ends. The Washington Post which is righfully ashamed of its recent performance under Bush gave a tepid endorsement to Kerry. This post and links inspired by Pacific Views.

The big blogosphere story

is that the US didn't guard a huge warehouse full of high explosives, 350 tons worth, and the insurgents have been using them against US troops and the White House has been keeping this story hidden since it occurred 18 months ago. The media is falling for the White House and Pentagon spin.

Campaign Noise

Some things seen and heard this weekend.

The Difference Between 1964 and 2004

In 1964 the United States was supporting a corrupt dictatorship in Vietnam.

In 2004 the United States is the corrupt dictatorship in Iraq.

Texas Bush Country Signs?

I am now living in the bedrock solid Bush country, I thought. A Texas oil company suburb, middle and upper-middle incomes, radios all tuned to Christian or country music or classic rock - supposedly all redneck, all Republican, all Bush. So why is it when I went for a long walk there are seven Kerry signs in my neighborhood and only three Bush? There isn't one at our house. It is for sale and you don't want to possibly offend potential buyers.

When I voted early why were there such long lines of quiet, not very happy, silent Republicans? My sister noticed pretty much solid Republican poll workers and I noticed pretty much everyone in line was dressed upper-middle-class. A huge number of nice cars and trucks in the parking lot. But they didn't seem a happy crowd. In a state, county and city that has only Republican statewide, countywide and citywide office holders, why were there so many more Democratic signs at the polling place? Why has my sister and her husband, solid Bush supporters until three weeks ago, switched to Kerry? I know of no one who voted for Gore switching to Bush but several people switching to Kerry. I guessed wrong in the 2002 elections, but I have more of a gut feel this election is different. Kerry 311 electoral votes.

Bush Win Job Opportunity

I have been pondering a job for after the elections. I might manage to get a sales job before the elections but right now the only thing I have lined up is for election day itself. Not having transportation right now sucks in the suburbs. I was out walking Sunday before I have been going stir crazy in the house.

If Bush wins I see a great job opportunity. Working for an underground abortion service center. If Bush wins Texas is one of 30 states poised to outlaw abortions. This won't stop them of course but will drive them underground like in the 60's. I could refer and take women to the underground doctors performing abortions. Abortion will be the new prohibition and fortunes could be made meeting the demand as conservative fundamentalists also don't like contraception. Other opportunites would of course be available in the porn and drug industries. Ashcroft is already spending millions setting up task forces to take on the cable systems and local porn shops. Saw that statistic the other day that crime, drugs and abortions are up under Bush when they were going down under Clinton.

If Kerry wins there is much less to worry about jobs being available.

Uncivil emails

BTW, never send an angry, hateful email to the New York Times. They have an idiot bastard for an ombudsman who will publish it and your name and city. Google gives thousands of people your phone number and address which the ombudsman knew. I am waiting for someone to publish the ombudsman's home phone and address.

My Reward To You For Early Voting

If you have early voted you can see some pictures of Fantasy Fest in Key West.

It has just started this year but here are some pictures from 2001.

Can someone suggest a public site for our female early voters?

How Bad Is the Gallup Poll?

In 2000 Gallup had a 13 point Bush lead the week before the election. Four years ago, Gallup showed a wide Bush lead until the last two days, when they closed it to two points or so. They have wildly gyrating polls because of their poor method of choosing "likely voters."

Their "likely voters" now overstate Southern Whites and Republicans and understates minorities, young voters, and new voters. The internals of the national polls look disastrous for Bush.