Wednesday, January 28, 2004
Is Kerry Palatable?
Now, the day after, many Democrats and progressives and certainly the Anybody-But-Bush throngs are trying to convince themselves that Kerry is a palatable nominee.
His speech Tuesday night helped him, as he hit some good, populist notes.
He said his cause is "an America that belongs not to the privileged, not to the few, but to all of our people." He said he wanted to "end the economy of privilege."
But for some on the left, Kerry's vote for the Iraq War may be unforgivable. His free trade views may turn off unionists. And his shameless demagoguery on welfare reform--watch as he increasingly repeats his support for Clinton's worst act--should raise alarms.
On top of that, Kerry remains a cautious, wooden speaker with patrician overtones. When he mentions the privileged, he knows what he's talking about. -- The Progressive.
el - I am sorry, I still see him as a Dukakis/Muskie cross. If anyone is "most electable" it might be John Edwards.
MoveOn Joins The AWOL Bush Fray
Moveon asks - Why was Lt. George W. Bush Absent from Duty for Months from the Air National Guard?
On May 24, 1972, Bush asked to be transferred to an inactive reserve unit in Alabama, where also would be working on a Republican senate candidate’s campaign. The request was first approved but then overruled. For months, Bush apparently put in no time at all in Guard service. In August 1972, Bush was suspended from flying duties for failing to submit to an annual physical exam. In September 1972 he was ordered to report to Dannelly ANG Base near Montgomery, AL, but – according to the commander – never showed up.
from an email - waiting for it to go online.
Wes Boyd, President of the MoveOn.org Voter Fund, said the organization would publish and circulate credible information offered by the Bush Administration or anyone else that would clarify his whereabouts and his relationship to the National Guard in 1972-74.
Can Kerry Close The Deal?
Liberal Oasis - mentioned recently how after losing to Paul Tsongas by 8 points, Clinton nevertheless called himself the Comeback Kid, and “the rest was history.”
But there’s a little more to that story.
The week after NH was the 7-state “Junior Tuesday.”
Tsongas won 3 states, the most of anyone, including two outside of his home region, Utah and Washington.
But that wasn’t enough to put it away.
Clinton won only 1. But it was an early time zone state, Georgia, and he won it big.
We’ve only had a small taste of how Kerry would face the GOP (and in LO’s view, it was a mixed bag).
Before Kerry closes the deal, and stakes the claim as the most electable, we should hope we get to see more.
Don’t forget the lesson of 2002
Trust Your Gut
Too many Beltway Dems assumed that voting against war and denouncing the Bush tax cut wouldn’t play with regular voters.
They didn’t trust that voters would respect them for standing on principle and making their case.
They didn’t trust their own instincts. They were afraid to take a risk.
And the party paid a price for it. At the polls. In the fundraising coffers. And in public opinion generally.
And don’t forget Florida in 2002.
A lot of folks thought Bill McBride was the most electable choice to beat Gov. Jeb Bush, and that Janet Reno was a sure loser.
Maybe Reno would have lost too. We’ll never know.
But just because McBride made sense on paper didn’t mean he was a lock.
Every Dem wants to put up the best candidate, the most electable candidate.
But we won’t get that if we don’t trust ourselves and trust our own judgments.
Kerry made an important point on Face The Nation this Sunday: “The South is not a foreign country.”
Now, the electability discussion is not just a North-South matter.
But Kerry’s point is: we’re all people, with similar, basic goals and desires, and similar human reactions.
If a candidate makes a connection with you, it’s more likely that candidate will connect with others.
You can’t know everything, and you can’t predict everything.
At the last moment, all you have is your gut.
Trust it, and you’ll feel good walking out of that voting booth.
el -how much is this a cheer for losing candidates and how much is this a reasonable strategy?
Late December/January was a bad time for Dean Poll Numbers
Daily Kos -Polls Galore
Arizona
SurveyUSA. 1/27. MoE 5%.
Kerry 30
Clark 24
Dean 23
Lieberman 10
Edwards 7
but ... Arizona State Univ. 1/24-25. MoE 4.6%.
Clark 22
Kerry 21
Dean 14
Edwards 7
American Research Group. 1/23-25. MoE 4%. (December results)
Kerry 24 (6)!
Clark 21 (15)
Edwards 15 (1)!
Dean 10 (26)!
Oklahoma
American Research Group. 1/23-25. MoE 4%. (December results)
Clark 23 (21)
Edwards 18 (3)!
Kerry 17 (2)!
Dean 8 (24)!
South Carolina
SurveyUSA. 1/24-26. MoE 3.9%.
Edwards 32
Clark 17
Dean 16
Kerry 13
Sharpton 10
American Research Group. 1/23-24. MoE 4%. (December results)
Edwards 21 (11)!
Kerry 17 (2)!
Sharpton 15 (12)
Clark 14 (12)
Dean 9 (16)!
The Jobless Recovery and the Descent of the Washington Post
The right-wing hackery from the Washington Post's editorial page defies belief.
There are the lapses into incoherence: "firms have to create jobs they never had before, which takes longer than recreating old ones... job creation lags in the early stages of a recovery." But we are now 2 1/4 years after the end of the recession. A six month lag I could understand. A twelve-month lag I could admit as a possibility. But 27 months? Nope. Employment is lagging not because businesses are too bureaucratic and slow to hire quickly, but because demand growth has been slower than productivity growth. Policies that had produced faster demand growth--either by not scaring the bejeezus out of everyone by claiming that Saddam Hussein was an immediate and deadly threat to every American, or by a fiscal policy that had more employment bang--would have produced faster employment growth as well.
There are the out-and-out lies: "fewer jobs were destroyed during the downturn." The Payroll Survey--which is our best set of estimates--has as currently at a net of 2.3 million jobs destroyed during our current period of recession-like activities. Compare that to a maximum net decline of 1.3 million jobs over 1990-1992, 2.9 million jobs during the 1981-1982 worst post-WWII recession, and 1 million jobs in 1979-1980. As measured by the decline in payroll employment, this is not a period in which "fewer jobs were destroyed during the downturn."
There are the total adbdications of rationality in the interest of providing a fig-leaf for the Bush administration: the claim that "Mr Bush should not be blamed for" the fact that job creation is lagging, immediately followed by "his irresponsible fiscal policy harms business confidence and therefore job creation."
9/11 Hijackers Used Mace And Knives
In its report on what happened aboard the jets, the commission concluded that the hijackers made bomb threats on at least three of the four planes and shot pepper spray on at least two flights. Passengers calling from cell phones noted the use of box cutters on only one flight, the report said. The commission also said it was skeptical of an earlier report that a gun was aboard one plane.
In a separate report yesterday, the 10-member bipartisan commission revealed that nine of the 19 hijackers had been flagged by the Federal Aviation Administration's computer passenger screening system before boarding their flights. The system alerts airport security screeners to more thoroughly check passengers who buy one-way tickets or pay with cash. FAA procedures at the time called for the luggage of the "selectees" to be screened for explosives.
Two reports from the commission that Bush has tried to stop. By the way - this is a small coverup now exposed. Someone didn't want people to know that the anti-hijack systems to stop weapons and explosives then in place did not work.
It is Still a Horse Race
History Favors Kerry, But Geography May Not
John F. Kerry prevailed, Howard Dean survived -- and the Democratic presidential contest between the two New Englanders now moves to a set of southern and border states where many Democrats think John Edwards and Wesley K. Clark may pose new challenges to Kerry's claim on the nomination.
Howard Dean may have a hard time figuring out what happens next after his second-place showing because New Hampshire was supposed to be the springboard that would propel him through more conservative states like Missouri and South Carolina. Yet the grittiness of his comeback fight after the disaster in Iowa was impressive. Dr. Dean also seems to be learning from his mistakes, and improving. He has expanded his message and appears to be finding at least a tentative balance between a flat policy speech and an angry harangue.
Mr. Kerry's ability to win the hearts of Democrats all around the country is not so certain that his strongest opponents should give up now. When the primaries come in from the cold, Mr. Kerry should not be running alone.
Dean's Speech to Supporters in NH
For those of you who believe that America needs real change and someone in the White House who's really delivered change, we're all together in this. Stand with us to the very end, which is Jan. 20, 2005.
For those of you who think that America needs a president who's willing to stand up for what's right, not just what's popular, we are all together again. Stand together, all of us. To those of you who believe the best way to beat George Bush, in fact the only way to beat George Bush is to stand up to him all the time, not just when it's convenient, not just some of the time, tonight the people of New Hampshire have asked for change, a real change.
more
Outsourcing The Computer Skills
How India became the capital of the computing revolution
Aparna Jairam isn't trying to steal your job. That's what she tells me, and I believe her. But if Jairam does end up taking it - and, let's face facts, she could do your $70,000-a-year job for the wages of a Taco Bell counter jockey - she won't lose any sleep over your plight. When I ask what her advice is for a beleaguered American programmer afraid of being pulled under by the global tide that she represents, Jairam takes the high road, neither dismissing the concern nor offering soothing happy talk. Instead, she recites a portion of the 2,000-year-old epic poem and Hindu holy book the Bhagavad Gita: "Do what you're supposed to do. And don't worry about the fruits. They'll come on their own."
White House emissaries head abroad to recast war
Seeking to recast its reasons for toppling Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq, the Bush administration is sending high-ranking officials abroad to justify the war as good for humanity, despite increasing evidence that Baghdad did not possess stockpiles of chemical, biological or nuclear weapons.
Is President Bush a Deserter?
Slate Explains.
Can we get every newpaper asking this question? Someone, somewhere must have a real investigative reporter.
"Several Bush friends, however, have insisted that they distinctly remember the president attending drills in Montgomery." Incorrect, as far as I know one ex-girlfriend says Bush told her he had to go to a drill. I see the right-wing site had a comment about two Bush campaign workers I hadn't seen before who say they support him. Riiiiiight
Hmm, the rightwing site used factcheck.org as supposedly the original source for the Bush AWOL defense. That is gone and Internet archives doesn't have it.
Slate also used an old incomplete democrats.com link instead of this current one.
Can John Kerry Sell John Kerry?
I've watched the Kerry surge with amazement. I've asked myself how Kerry is persuading previously skeptical voters to change their minds about him. The answer is, he isn't. Other people are doing the persuasion. Other people are doing the testimonial ads, as first lady Christie Vilsack did for Kerry in Iowa. Other people are firing up his crowds. Other people are telling his story. Other people are touting his virtues at rallies because he doesn't reliably display those virtues himself. The man who stood up to serve his country as a soldier is being propped up as a candidate.
At Edwards' rally, the candidate was introduced for maybe three minutes and spent the rest of the event making the pitch himself. A Kerry rally is nothing like that. It's more like a roast. First Shaheen sang Kerry's praises. Then a former state senator sang Kerry's praises. Then Ted Kennedy sang Kerry's praises. Then Kennedy's son, Rep. Patrick Kennedy, D-R.I., sang Kerry's praises. Then Kerry spoke for a bit and handed the mike to his stepson and wife, who sang Kerry's praises. It's like going to a concert and sitting through a bunch of speeches in which the musician's friends attest, "This guy can sing."
Ted Kennedy's liberal credentials are only one of the reasons he's been warming up crowds for Kerry the past two weeks. The other reason is that Kennedy is twice the barn-burner Kerry ever could be. Kennedy's voice booms. At each stop, he makes well-worn stories sound fresh and ad libs the rest. Kerry can't ad lib to save his life.
Kerry hopes Cleland will put Republicans to shame for what they did to Cleland. But as a retail politician, the guy Cleland puts to shame is Kerry. For 15 minutes, Kerry lumbered around the stage in Nashua, poking his finger in the air and otherwise treating the rest of his body as a trunk from which to hang one moving arm. Then the music cranked up, and Cleland started to boogie in his wheelchair, his brow furrowed suggestively, his hips and shoulders gyrating to the beat. The guy with four limbs was using one, while the guy with one limb was using four. It makes you want to scream over the music that the wrong veteran is running for president.
If only Cleland could be on stage next fall to prop up Kerry in the debates with President Bush. If only Kennedy and Shaheen and all those congressmen could be there, too. But they can't. If you nominate Kerry, you don't get the sales force. You just get him.
Do the Dean Online Tools Divert Energy From Real Campaign?
Maybe the adoption of those tools by a traditional campaign is a better way to fuse of 21st century organizing and 19th century “Get out the Vote” efforts. This would be especially true if these tools, used on their own, risk creating a sense of accomplishment and satisfaction that doesn’t translate to driving down to the polls in freezing weather.
Most Self-Abuse Goes Unreported
According to a study released Tuesday by the University of Colorado sociology department, approximately 95 percent of self-abuse cases in the U.S. go unreported.
"As shocking as it may seem, unreported incidents of self-abuse number in the billions," said Dr. Henry Cracklin, director of the study. "This isn't just the plight of teenage boys and truck drivers. Self-abuse affects both genders and all ages. Nevertheless, a great majority of victims suffer the abuse in silence."
The study's results, obtained through five years of surveys and interviews, indicate that millions of Americans have publicly acknowledged involvement in a self-abusive relationship. Yet the study finds that unreported abuse victims comprise an alarming 87 percent of the female population and 99.6 percent of males.
Bush Announces Campaign to Restore Honor and Dignity to the White House
"One thing is clear—it's time for a fresh beginning," Bush said. "Choose the ticket that leads to freedom, peace, and security. Choose Bush and Cheney."
Cheney spoke Monday at an event in Atlanta, addressing a crowd of 2,500 supporters from the tobacco and soft-drink industries.
"After these past three years, we need to rebuild a government based on old-fashioned American values: duty, dignity, and responsibility," said Cheney, who has served as a Wyoming congressman and U.S. vice-president. "George Bush is a man of these values, and he's ready to begin to put them to work in Washington."
"After years of false statements and empty promises, it's time for big changes in Washington," Bush said. "We need a president who will finally stand up and fight against the lies and corruption. It's time to renew the faith the people once had in the White House. If elected, I pledge to usher in a new era of integrity inside the Oval Office."
Bush told the crowd that, if given the opportunity, he would work to reestablish the goodwill of the American people "from the very first hour of the very first day" of his second term.
"The people have spoken," Bush said. "They said they want change. They said it's time to clean up Washington. They're tired of politics as usual. They're tired of the pursuit of self-interest that has gripped Washington. They want to see an end to partisan bickering and closed-door decision-making. If I'm elected, I'll make sure that the American people can once again place their trust in the White House."
Bush said the soaring national debt and the lengthy war in Iraq have shaken Americans' faith in the highest levels of government.
el - real world or The Onion world?
9/11 Commission Says It Needs More Time
The independent commission investigating the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks announced on Tuesday that it was seeking an extension of its deadline to complete the investigation until at least July, raising the prospect of a public fight with the White House and a final report delivered in the heat of the presidential campaign.
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