Tuesday, September 19, 2006

What a real clash of civilizations looks like


After the UN speeches I am more convinced then ever the US is going to attack Iran. Depressing.

I have been doing a little checking my sources and putting myself in an Iranian leader's shoes.

The Clash

The minute my border was crossed I would proclaim jihad because of the attack by the American-Israeli Zionist forces. Iran has recently been shipping the upgraded anti-tank weapons to Iraq militias, with jihad proclaimed have Shiite militias use them to close down land routes to the Green Zone. Have local militias overrun at least one American military outpost. Have the Shiite Iraqi leaders set free all the Shiite prisoners in Iraq.

The UK redeployment to the border near Basra far from stopping an Iranian incursion, why would they bother, wait for cheering Shiite Iraqis to urge Iranians to enter, just means they are artillery targets. The Green Zone in Baghdad and the new American military bases around Iraq have Scud bull's-eyes practically painted on them. Attack the Iraqi oil pipelines in dozens of places. Destroy Basra harbor. Iran has been testing new laser-guided bombs; see if a quick low-level air attack can get through the American AWACs and the CAP. Swarm the Persian Gulf with civilian and military boats and drop off the mines. When the war starts immediately target with torpedoes from subs and anti-ship missiles any oil tankers in the Gulf. Send boarding parties armed with missiles to the Gulf oil platforms, again.

Send suicide bombers to blow up American embassies or businesses around the world. McDonald's and Coca-Cola, bye-bye. Drop a few mortar rounds onto the United States military airfields and hospitals in Germany. The US has a helluva long supply line to the Middle East and there are ports and airfields that all have to be protected. Have small teams launch anti-ship missiles at American military supply transports - in Italy. Satchel bombs at planes headed to Iraq in Dublin.

The British position in Basra is completely untenable - sends tens of thousands of Shiites into the streets demanding they leave, during the marches have armed militia in the mobs start opening fire and swarming the British forces. You either succeed or the British enrage the population with all the civilian casualties and you have a larger angrier mob next time.

Questions - will Syria honor the mutual defense agreement? Will Hezbollah attack through the UN forces at Israel with more missiles?

There will be objections that many of these attacks won't work, that Iran and supporters will lose the battles and take thousands of casualties. The answer to this is this is what you expect. This is jihad against a militarily superior but numerically weaker foe. Casualties on the order of 50 - 1 or more means Iran will win. 30,000 Iranian and Muslim supporter casualties for 500 British and Americans dead is a victory. The secret to success in this scenario is to give the American Coalition a target rich environment but keep rolling back the defenses and overwhelm them. That and provoking more outrage in the Arab streets for the numerous American attacks on civilians.

Over the next several days see how reaction in the rest of the Muslim world is building. Then take the fight to Israel and the "anti-Muslim" Arab governments that are not supporting you. Have the Iraqi mullahs proclaim the jihad. Round-up the pro-American legislators and shoot them. World-wide have the mullahs proclaim that the mad perverted Americans and Israelis just want to destroy Islam. Order American missionaries in Africa killed.

The two real immediate goals are getting Syria active in the fight and overthrowing the weak Pakistani moderate regime.

Try to have the UN condemn the American British Israeli naked aggression and demand an embargo from the peace loving nations of the world.

Announce that Americans have used nuclear weapons in some of their attacks on your peaceful nuclear facilities, claim thousands of radiation victims. Rather they did or didn't is immaterial, leaks have made clear that Cheney wants to, but investigating radioactive debris to determine the source takes time and who would trust the Americans not to lie?

Set off riots in India demanding the government break off all ties to the murderous aggressive nuclear mad United States. Blame India for being a Zionist ally and killing Muslim rioters.

Within two weeks new Pakistani pro-Iranian government leaders, or at least the pro-Iranian intelligence forces, give you the bomb.

...

Decisions, decisions. The US Enterprise and the carrier battle group, Tel Aviv, or smuggle one on to a ship? Maybe blow to Hell the infidels in Riyadh who started the mess by inviting American Christians over to pollute Muslim holy lands?

...

There was a pro-American, support our troops rally being held in Hermann Park in downtown Houston sponsored by the Clear Channel Radio stations and several Houston churches. It stopped when there was a bright flash, then a tremendous roar of noise and wind and a wave of hot gasses from the Houston Ship Channel. A massive cloud began rising over charred and burning twisted rubble.

......

Nothing in the above is outlandish and I would argue nearly all of it is even plausible. Will it happen exactly this way? No. Could it? Yes.

Oh yeah, like Bush and his supporters really know what they are getting into. They remind me of the Republican conservatives who were furious at John F. Kennedy when he didn't start World War 3 over the Cuban Missile Crisis.

Since it seems too much to ask for conservatives to think responsibly could you make sure you urge everyone else to vote this November?


2 comments:

Gary said...

You can recommend this at Daily Kos, or not. It probably needs expanding and some work on the POV.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/9/20/34458/8643

rjnagle said...

Well, it's a credible scenario, but I interpret Bush's noise as saber rattling. (hey, remember the Cold War; that's all we ever did).

Europeans would totally divorce/boycott US if there were any campaign against that country. It would also trigger an uprising within the US. Even pro-war people know that with Iraq we are overstretched. It doesn't make sense to extend ourselves even further. That is not to say that Bush is hearing this "common sense" viewpoint. Politically and militarily I doubt that we'd be in a position to contemplate action against iran.