Friday, January 25, 2008

Texas Democratic Caucus Candidate Allocation


More than you need to know about the Democratic caucus system in Texas.

On March 4 2008 Texas Democrats will caucus at each precinct. At each precinct a minimum of 15% of the attendees must support a candidate for his/her representation to be viable. Delegates are chosen to go to the county or senate district convention.

At the county/senate district convention again 15% is required for viability. Precincts and precinct groupings select delegates to the state convention. Then "at-large" delegates are chosen by the nomination committee so that the proportion of each candidates delegates are reflected in the representation of the delegation. Even if a candidate is represented from precincts or precinct groups the candidate will not receive at-large delegates unless they are over 15% for the county/senate district convention as a whole. They will receive the precinct or precinct group delegates.

This is done again at the state convention being held in Austin June 6-7. The senate districts, again obeying the 15% viability rule, elect their delegates to the national convention. Each senate district has between 2 and 8 depending on Democratic votes in 2004 and 2006. The state convention also formalizes the "unpledged super delegates" based on political office or party committee membership. Then pledged party official and elected delegates are selected by proportion of candidates delegates attending the convention. Then "at large" delegates are chosen reflecting the proportion of the presidential candidates that signed into the party convention.

Note there are several levels where the 15% rule comes in play, at the precincts, at the precinct groups in the county/senate district conventions, at the county or senate district conventions as a whole, and at the state convention.

The Republican rules are somewhat similar but with a 20% viability rule.

Come out to caucus at 7:15 PM March 4th to really decide on the presidential candidates.

Bush seems to have made sure this is a bad stimulus package


Our feckless Democrats in Congress caved to him after only mitigating the damage. There is talk the Senate might improve the bill further, actually giving money where it is needed. Krugman has the overall picture.

The words of Franklin Delano Roosevelt come to mind: “We have always known that heedless self-interest was bad morals; we know now that it is bad economics.”

And the worst of it is that the Democrats, who should have been in a strong position — does this administration have any credibility left on economic policy? — appear to have caved in almost completely.

Yes, they extracted some concessions, increasing rebates for people with low income while reducing giveaways to the affluent. But basically they allowed themselves to be bullied into doing things the Bush administration’s way.

Who will do better in the general election considering the economy we will have in November? I think Edwards. There is probably a point or two bump for Edwards in the primaries with Kucinich dropping out but it would take a miracle for him to be the candidate.

Texas and Ohio may decide the nominees on March 4.

I take exception to crackpot psychiatrist Charles Krauthammer. I was ignoring his Washington Post column but the Houston Chronicle reran it and put this headline on it "John Edwards farce is an affront to authentic liberals." Clinton, Obama, and Edwards are all running against their records in the Senate. Edwards is no worse than the other two and his current positions are better then theirs. If a real liberal wants your advice, Charles, he is on the way to the looney-bin.

Added - Froomkin has links to how bad is this stimulus package compared to what was needed.
A study by [Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Economy.com,] estimates that every dollar put into the food stamp program produces a $1.73 increase in the economy as the money is spent and spent again. By contrast, every dollar put into the business tax breaks that are in the stimulus package will increase the economy by 27 cents, according to the study. The business portion of the stimulus package allows companies to write off 50 percent of the cost of equipment in the year of purchase. This will help firms that sell long-lasting equipment such as machine tools, aircraft, and agricultural and construction equipment. Technology firms could also benefit. But much of that investment would have happened anyway, according to some economists.

Wednesday, January 23, 2008

'If you think the market's bad now, wait a year'


Houston is spared the worst of the bear market in housing but we have our own stories here. The above link is to ground zero for overvalued homes and and too many ARMs - California.

Cal. foreclosures up 421% from year-ago levels

"I think we're real lucky in Houston"

Update on Houston economy. Still pretty good - especially compared to elsewhere.

One recent bad note - There are rumors that ADV Films seems to have laid off all of their voice talent. ADV Films, a subsidiary of AD Vision Inc, was the largest anime company in the world outside of Japan dubbing and distributing Asian animated properties and some other science fiction series. It is unclear how serious the problems are and the future of the company in Houston. There have been a number of related announcements about various divisions of the company but no announcement about how bad the financials are. How can that be when anime is such a strong hot category? Bad business decisions at the top are suspected.

What does the international community think of the US economy? US in role of wounded giant - international experts blame Fed.

How bad is the national economy?
Starbucks testing $1 coffee.
Brother can you spare a dollar?

Local Politics


Even the local Pasadena Texas paper and Talton are poking fun at the PhotoShop candidate.

Harris County Judge using taxpayer funds to make sure you see his name. Instead of the County Logo, Judge Emmett puts his campaign literature name on backdrop to county events.

The mail-in ballots determined the new Pasadena mayor.

Republican Judge invalidates last 90 days of runaway grand jury. Was this incompetence in Rosenthal's office or more crony Republicanism? Fall gal - Prosecutor Kate Dolan was responsible for the grand jury mistake, according to authorities and herself.

Pasadena officers charged in death of inmate. This was the case of a 911 call that said the officers were beating or kicking a man offering no resistance.

Texas Air base fesses up - military planes were flying at time of UFO sighting.

The Pasadena Citizen had an opinion-editorial from the New Right's New School of Influence - Grove City College. "Look at any Right Wing Think Tank’s list of personnel – in the US or abroad – and you will likely find a Grove City connection." Question, why is a minor Christian conservative college getting it's faculty in so many places? Answer, it was organized and has received generous conservative funding.

Media forgotten nuggets


They endlessly talked about the 2000 campaign and how McCain was smeared in South Carolina in some of the dirtiest mudslinging in a presidential primary campaign. What they forgot was who was behind it - Bush's top advisor in the state, and where he works now - Romney's campaign. It looks like Romney may have had a hand in taking out Fred.

Number two - Greenwald is right, Majority Leader Reid is atrocious as Democratic leader and kow-towing to big phone companies. Have the media ever noticed this?

After the press reported on a major study of the 935 lies that lead to the Iraq War, Captain Star Trek Lite claimed it was all a rich Jewish financier's plot. Captain Ed takes direction from the Herbert Hoover Institute, Powerline, and various Scaife publications and foundations. Froomkin has a good round-up on real news, not Scaife funded craziness.


Will we get universal health care?


Probably in 2009, but will it be the universal health care the insurers want? The insurance and health care industries are lining up to line their pockets when health care reform gets passed. In many ways Matt is right, if the candidates were promising "universal car ownership" the auto makers wouldn't fight it, they would push the proposals that got them the most money. Ditto for the health care industry.

Will this be the best plan? No, but it is the most doable. If it benefits the big industries half the Republicans will support it. What may sink it is the massive hidden charges on private plans as opposed to government plans - the opposite of the Republican and Libertarian rhetoric.

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Choosing the most electable candidate


It isn't Clinton or Obama. I am surprised that Republicans have been ignoring their radio leaders and rallying to McCain who actually is the most electable candidate on their side. Meanwhile Edwards is ignored by the media, the two leading Dem candidates and most of the Democratic primary goers. This happened in 2004 with Democratic insiders proclaiming Kerry the most electable while outsiders and polls showed it was John Edwards or Wes Clark.

I am getting tired of Democrats writing off Red States and trying to fashion a narrow East Coast + West Coast + some Mid West states victory that depends a great deal on luck.

Frank Wrinn in Tennessee:
Gallup and Rasmussen now have McCain beating Clinton and Obama. In a Rasmussen poll released last week McCain beats Clinton by a startling 11 percentage points. Now, Rasmussen also shows Clinton trailing Huckabee, Obama in dead heat with Huckabee, but Edwards leading Huckabee by double digits. In Democratic stronghold Pennsylvania this month, Rasmussen has McCain beating Clinton by 6% and Obama by 8%. Hello. Where do Democrats make up for a loss in Pennsylvania. Texas?...

For Democrats to change anything, we have to win first.
Edwards on Letterman.

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The Fed can't stop the recession and may hurt


The Federal Reserve has been taking action to preserve the banks and financial institutions. They are the institutions it serves but they are the ones who created this mess. Unfortunately, the only tools it is using to fix the economy are all designed to increase liquidity in the system. This is another way of saying the Fed is throwing boatloads of free and cheap money at the problem. But the problem for the overall economy isn't the money supply, although more cheap money might save some banks. Money supply has been running at ridiculously large increases before the crisis.

The best measure is the total money supply is M3, which the Bush administration made sure it would no longer issue reports on in 2006. That rate of money supply growth is 15%. Why create more money when you are already creating 15% a year? What the Federal Reserve is going to create with the current "solution" they are using is stagflation.

Stagflation, a combination of high inflation and no employment growth occurred in the late 60's to early 80's. The Federal Reserve and the White House floundered around for years seeking a solution.

The current economic crisis is also similar to another time in our recent history. The "Savings and Loan Crisis" of the 80's. Similar to now it was created by loose lending requirements, lax regulation, and obscene profits for the few. It can be argued that the S&L Crisis was also an effect of the Fed's cure for stagflation. The high interest rates doomed Savings and Loans which were financed by low-interest-rate mortgages. The US taxpayers were left holding the bag for a $125 billion bailout of the financial institutions that time. That was a much easier and smaller problem to solve - rescue the Savings and Loans and wait until the housing market adjusted. This time tax payers could end up holding a trillion dollar bag.

Similarly, how did they finally cure stagflation? Raise interest rates to kill inflation, it took over four years, and wait till the economic system adjusted. The failures of S&L's were collateral damage. Note that this cure that worked is the opposite of what the Fed is doing now. There are reasons that this is not even being considered. One of them is that the government is hiding the real inflation numbers. Why, I'm not sure, but Social Security increases should have been about twice what they were which may have something to do with it. (The increases for seniors should have been even higher if like me you think there should be a Senior Citizen inflation index with a much higher weight given to medical price increases. ) If you go back to when they started adjusting the CPI, Walter J. "John" Williams thinks Social Security checks should be double.

What can improve the economy without stagflation? You can ease the pain of it for most Americans by readjusting taxes to benefit the 95% of Americans who have been screwed by tax cuts for the rich. From 1979 to 2005 real family income for the average family has gone up 15%, for the top 5% - 81%.

You can readjust the business taxes to promote job growth in the United States.

You can give business credits for new job creation and entirely new industries and quit rewarding the plantation industries. A digression to modern politics and plantation economics with President Bush as an example.

You can work out policies that reduce inequality because the United States has been making great gains that the great majority of people are not benefiting from as the riches are funneled to the rich.

You can promote the new jobs that will be created by the new green solutions to the environmental crisis.

You can spend money on education for the new jobs and lowering the cost of education for all. Bush has presided over the largest educational cost increases for typical families in history.

You can increase legal immigration that creates new jobs and more workers and take action to end the illegal low wage slave immigration.

We can pay for some of this by ending the war. We don't have the money for the $2 trillion Iraqi war. Bring them home now. Money being spent on an aggressive military posture wastes money that generates jobs on needed infrastructure improvements, better roads, bridges, homes, flood control and communications.

Get radical in 2008. You see what the Washington conventional wisdom brings. Also listen to what the presidential candidates propose. By the way, solving business problems by cutting jobs is probably not the experience you need for this - I'm looking at you Romney. Watch how many Republicans propose to solve the problem by cutting taxes for the rich and businesses. Like Bush, many believe whatever the problem is you cure it by cutting taxes. They rarely say one of the current problems is how much of your taxes is going to pay for the government debt and the liabilities the government has piled up under Bush and left for us and our children to pay for in the future.

Look at history, Democrats are better for the economy, better for the stock market, and better for the average American. Better in every measurement.

Update: The Panic seems to be on - "In 2008, Americans will wake up to the worst economic times that anyone alive has ever seen." (Gerald Celente, 17 December 2007.) Thanks Janette.

"Better superglue yourselves to the floorboards and pray for God's mercy."

Bob Herbert - "They should stop, take a deep breath and acknowledge the obvious: the way to put money into the hands of working people is to make sure they have access to good jobs at good wages. That has long been known, but it hasn’t been the policy in this country for many years."

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Monday, January 21, 2008

GameSpot's Sad State of Affairs


I am shocked, shocked! I say, that multimedia news companies are firing writers who say bad things about the product of their advertisers and the companies even sell the placement of their stories and coverage. ROTFL

Molly Ivins on Hillary Clinton


The late great Texas Icon Molly Ivins had this to say about Hillary in one of her columns before her death.
I will not support Hillary Clinton for president
January 20, 2006

I'd like to make it clear to the people who run the Democratic Party that I will not support Hillary Clinton for president.

Enough. Enough triangulation, calculation and equivocation. Enough clever straddling, enough not offending anyone This is not a Dick Morris election. Sen. Clinton is apparently incapable of taking a clear stand on the war in Iraq, and that alone is enough to disqualify her. Her failure to speak out on Terri Schiavo, not to mention that gross pandering on flag-burning, are just contemptible little dodges....

What kind of courage does it take, for mercy's sake? The majority of the American people (55 percent) think the war in Iraq is a mistake and that we should get out. The majority (65 percent) of the American people want single-payer health care and are willing to pay more taxes to get it. The majority (86 percent) of the American people favor raising the minimum wage. The majority of the American people (60 percent) favor repealing Bush's tax cuts, or at least those that go only to the rich. The majority (66 percent) wants to reduce the deficit not by cutting domestic spending, but by reducing Pentagon spending or raising taxes.

The majority (77 percent) thinks we should do "whatever it takes" to protect the environment. The majority (87 percent) thinks big oil companies are gouging consumers and would support a windfall profits tax. That is the center, you fools. WHO ARE YOU AFRAID OF?
God I miss her.

Skilled and Out of Work


Long-term joblessness is already at high levels and is affecting highly skilled workers the Washington Post finds. Those who find new jobs take a pay cut of almost 20%. It may be more, that covered the years 2001 to 2003.

Some quick links


Sekula-Gibbs being called on her abortion switch.

Greenwald: NYT reporter not liberal on the Iraq war and the only thing the surge accomplished is make sure our troops aren't coming home.

Reason: Lew Rockwell wrote Ron Paul's many objectionable newsletters. Raw prejudice brought in more money.

Billionaires for Bush Romney plans to spend $250 million.

Nation Popular Vote bills now in effect in two states. About to pass in six more. Seven more have passed in the appropriate committee. Will the electoral college be bypassed this year in favor of the popular vote winner? No, probably not until 2012 unless a candidate gets behind this now. Tip: introduce a resolution at your party convention.

Sibel UK Headline 2. THE FBI has been accused of lying and covering up a key case file detailing evidence against corrupt U.S. government officials and their dealings with foreign spy networks stealing our nuclear secrets.

Huckabee: "I'm having to reach down deep and swallow my Arkansas pride, and it is taking everything in me to be able to say this, but, folks, Texas may just have to save this Arkansas boy and put us over the top in March of this year."

More on Huck and Chuck in Navasota.

Local Republican politician's unbelievable statements this week.

Jonathan Chait on who's more electable - Hillary or Obama? (My answer - John Edwards, here's why.)

Worldwide Stock Drop! Bulls end denial, in retreat. U.S. recession blamed.

Krugman: Use the employment to population ratio. Actually the male employment to male population 18-55 is even better. Our real unemployment rate is worse than France's. The next year or two will be unpleasant. Where to apply the stimulus - poor workers and infrastructure projects. Debunking the Reagan myth.

Josh - Why in the Hell should Edwards drop out?

Does Public Opinion Count? - video.

Maureen Dowd gets caught with a fake dateline.

Eight-year-old corrects New York Times.

Edward's Aides no longer expect to win a single state. Still in. (This was a not very transparent attempt to get Edward's to drop out.)

Some movies and TV shows about writers you could watch today.

MLK Day - ‘The time has come for America to hear the truth…’

Free at last, free at last, Thank God Almighty Bush leaves office in one year!

Democrats debate tonight on CNN. How bad will the moderators be?

Obama gives rousing unity speech at King's church. Video. Edward's rousing unity speech.

Juan Cole: It is time to wrap up the Iraq War and to, as carefully and deliberately as possible, end the US military presence in Iraq.

Someone I would never have expected to agree with - Michael Medved. SOUTH CAROLINA'S BIG LOSER: TALK RADIO
If you’ve tuned in at all to Rush, Sean, Savage, Glenn Beck, Laura Ingraham, Mark Levin, Hugh Hewitt, Dennis Prager, and two dozen others you’ve heard a consistent drum beat of hostility toward Mac and Huck.

Texas 2008 Round-Up #3


It's Monday and that means it's time for another weekly roundup of Texas Progressive Alliance blogs. This week's roundup is brought to you by Steve at WhosPlayin while Vince recovers from his wild weekend of covering the AFL-CIO Convention

WhosPlayin takes a look at a spoof website that has turned a Denton County Commissioner's race ugly.

John Coby cautions Houston City Council about Houstonians for Responsible Growth.

BossKitty at Bluebloggin points out how Dick Cheney show his loyalty toward the people who are suppose to take a bullet for him; Secret Service Takes The Fall - Cheney Not To Be Inconvenienced

A report of the SDEC meeting posted by PDiddie at Brains and Eggs drew a response from several quarters.

McBlogger looks at Rep Dawnna Dukes' conflict of interest in helping the film industry and wonders if she's truly non-committal in the Speaker's race.

On The Texas Blue, contributing writer David Gurney takes a look at the short-lived influence of the Baby Boomer era on politics in The Downhill Run.

Off the Kuff says it's time for C.O. Bradford to start speaking out about the various messes Chuck Rosenthal has created at the Harris County DA's office.

The Texas Cloverleaf informs everyone about the TTC Townhall 2.0 hearings have begun. If you care where TTC 69 is going, you best attend for your voice to be heard.

WCNews at Eye On Williamson points out that Democrat Diana Maldonado Out-Raises All Candidates In HD-52 and shows the problem with one-party government in ACLU Shames WCCC - Free Speech Under Attack.

Stace at Dos Centavos analyzes the Latino vote for Hillary in Nevada.

Gary at Easter Lemming Liberal News still can't believe what has happened to what was once Houston's premiere radio news source. The new Republican Propaganda Radio Network had Rush Limbaugh calling a spade a spade with expertise with using hoes. Gary provides alternatives for your radio listening and a contact link to KTRH 740 AM.

CouldBeTrue from South Texas Chisme answers the question 'What does 'immigration' mean as an issue?'

Hal at Half Empty ventured forth to a meeting of The Dark Side. Here is his take on the 10-Candidate strong CD 22 GOP candidates' forum that took place last week.

Nat-Wu at Three Wise Men says reports of the death of the American "warrior spirit" are greatly exaggerated.

Update on Caucusing


Some reports out of Nevada illustrate that it can be ugly and confusing and the most prepared candidates win.

This updates my post on “I’m like, what the heck is caucusing?”

Turn out and vote March 4 at 7:15 PM at your precinct location.

Discussions are getting very heated about the passionate caucus goers in Nevada.

How team Clinton prepared for the caucuses.

Sunday, January 20, 2008

Will Edwards still be around for Texas?


Edwards had been expected to be in for the long haul but his weak showing in Nevada is raising doubts about his continued campaigning. For a while it seemed that Edwards could take advantage of the 15% rule to stay in and see if his campaign would eventually catch fire or be the king maker at the convention. Nevada had Edwards down to less than 5% and getting no national convention delegates.
"I got my butt kicked. That is what happened in Nevada," Edwards said Sunday on CNN's "Late Edition with Wolf Blitzer. "And the job for me now is -- I have learned this from my whole life experience -- is when you get knocked down, you have got to get up. ...

"You know, what happens in Vegas stays in Vegas?" he added. "I hope that turns out to be true in this case."
On to South Carolina and then Super Duper Tuesday and we will see where that leaves the race. It is several days past time for a shake-up in the Edwards campaign. Even his fans say that Edwards passion for issues supporting the working class just is not connecting with most voters.

Past Mayor Isbell Wins Pasadena Texas Mayor's Race


In a very close race Johnny Isbell wins 52.8% of the vote over Ralph Riggs. Only around 6,750 citizens cast ballots for a city of 150,000.

A good clean race. Key issues that decided the race - the questionable acting mayor endorsement after he said he would not endorse, mail-in ballot applications to everyone over 65, the Pasadena North/South split, full-time mayor versus experience, and looking forward to effective honest government or looking back for effective experience.

The keys for Isbell's win were the endorsement and robo-calling by the Acting Mayor Douglass and that Isbell immediately on being in a run-off sent campaign literature with a mail-in ballot application inside to everyone over 65 or otherwise eligible. (People should remember that for future races.)

After a brief slender lead by Isbell on the early vote, throughout the night Riggs held on to the lead. Finally around ten o'clock District H and the mail-in votes results were announced and the winner declared.

Long time Pasadena observers were shocked by the closeness of the race. I wasn't, Pasadena was almost ready for a change and may have gotten it except for the Mayor Douglass endorsement, the head start Isbell got on mail-in ballots, and Isbell's son JJ's district H. (Throw out JJ's district and the race was tied or throw out the mail-in ballots and Riggs wins.)

Both candidates ran issues and endorsements campaigns. All of the earlier candidates except one who were in the race had endorsed Riggs. Isbell had the police and fire endorsements and the acting mayor's. Douglass had promised not to endorse in the race and then said that only applied to the early crowded field. He said he was persuaded by Isbell's experience.

Final preliminary results:
Johnny Isbell 3,559 52.8%
Ralph Riggs 3,182 47.2%


A few provisional ballots are still out and will not change the results.

Update - Pasadena Citizen: Isbell late comeback seals win

Saturday, January 19, 2008

“I’m like, what the heck is caucusing?”


That is the question in Nevada and will be the question in Texas March 4 at 7:15 PM. The local Democratic clubs are holding training, in Pasadena Monday night at 7:30, earlier for judges. In Clear Lake - Bay Area New Democrats is even holding a large caucus demonstration to get people clear on the concept but I don't have a date yet.

Texas Democrats will allocate 126 delegates by Senate District based on primary results. Edwards better get 15% to be included which is the number he is hovering around. Then 102 Texas delegates are allocated in other ways including some party officials and politicians automaticly. The final delegation will be around 50% female and racially proportionate to Democratic caucus goers. Go to the caucus to be part of this process.

Today South Carolina Republicans are voting in a winner take all primary by congressional district. McCain or Huckabee with around 27% could walk off with all the marbles. Hillary and Obama are fighting for the win in Nevada and Romney will run away on the Republican side.

Today Pasadena Texas voters are electing a new mayor if they hadn't already safe early voted.

Update on the state representative 144 race: Competing for the state District 144 seat currently held by Talton who is running for the 22 Congressional seat are Republicans Ken Legler, Pasadena Independent School District board member Fred Roberts and John Hughey. The sole Democrat running for the position is Joel C. Redmond, a mortgage broker with family connections to the north Pasadena First Baptist church.

Friday, January 18, 2008

Weekend Break



Fly Me to the Moon - Diane Krall


Dale Pa' Tra - Notch


You Look Mahvelous - Billy Crystal

Doctored Photos in GOP Race


Bad Photoshopping gets Houston Chronicle front page.

Confession - as a campaign advisor I have had candidates drop a few pounds by condensing the horizontal on some photographs.

Huckabee's ties to Biblical Reconstructionists


Salon.com: Huckabee believes the Bible trumps the Constitution.

Huckabee's radical religious friends

Huckabee courts believers in Armageddon.
"South Carolina people know true conservatism when they see it. You don't like people outside the state telling you how you ought to raise your kids. You don't like people from outside the state telling you what to do with the [Confederate] flag. In fact, if somebody came down to Arkansas and told us what to do with our flag, we'd tell 'em where to put the pole."
Huckabee said that "the genius" of the Constitution is that it was built to be changed. On the other hand, he said, the Bible "was not created to be amended and altered with each passing culture."

Where have I read this before?

Robert Anson Heinlein: 2012 Nehemiah Scudder is elected American President, and implants a religious dictatorship - To Sail Beyond the Sunset published in 1987.

The First Prophet was Nehemiah Scudder, a backwoods preacher turned President (elected in 2012), then dictator (no elections were held in 2016 or later) - If This Goes On copyright 1953.

UPDATE
- Time Jesus Christ's Superstar.

Is Huckabee a religious populist?

Michael Skelly runs against Culberson


Houston Business Journal has a write-up if you subscribe.
"Business people approach issues in a very pragmatic way: How to solve the problem," he says. "Politicians come from ideological perspective. Pragmatic leaders are what we need today."
Is Skelly the advent of big green money?

Chron.com main story.

Skelly for Congress.

Las Vegas and the forgotten candidate


More. And more.

Jay at Time thinks Edwards will be the kingmaker and has chosen the king.

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Great Minds Think Alike


I have been reflecting on the radical right nut jobs and Kohlberg's stages of moral development recently and censorship. So has natasha, smintheus and Sara. As natasha writes: "everybody's local flavor of fundamentalist sounds the same as all the rest of them. Mass arrested development."

Some recent bad examples - Mike Savage. Wow.

The other - the author of a recently banned comment here. "This blog is the biggest pile of b.s. I have ever read. I sure hope you don't reproduce!" I am reproducing the comment in full. That type of comment is not unusual. What was unusual was that my concern for what politicians were supporting the Middle Class brought on that comment.

OK, it is a given they are wacky nut jobs. But I have difficulty in determining at what point should we consider censorship for hate speech. At this blog I have made it a policy to reserve the right to ban anonymous comments I don't like. How much should the government regulate our public airwaves which have been given to private enterprise to profit from as long as they serve the public interest? Is hate speech no longer serving the public interest?

A question I don't have an easy answer to.

Tick off a conservative today. Read for pleasure.

Recession


Could be a long hard one. Demographics are starting to indicate it could be a decades long recession for the housing market.
About to wreak havoc on the housing market are the 78 million American baby boomers who will “retire, relocate, and eventually withdraw from the housing market,” according to report authors Dowell Myers, a professor of urban planning and demography in the School of Policy, Planning and Development at the University of Southern California, and SungHo Ryu, an associate planner with the Southern California Association of Governments.

Using demographic data to show that individuals in their mid-60s tend to sell more often than buy, the authors contend that when boomers — a “dominant force in the housing market” — start reaching the age of 65 in the year 2011, a market shift will occur. Some retirees will be looking to downsize, others will relocate to warmer climes, while others will move to nursing homes, says Mr. Myers. As they transition out of the housing market or look to sell their homes, in some states there will be “more homes available for sale than there are buyers for them.”

...The authors suggest that to combat the boomer generational trend, local communities need to limit overbuilding of new housing, put measures into place to retain the elderly in the community and attract young households and immigrant households to local neighborhoods.
Krugman - "I suspect that it’s already too late to prevent a recession."

Bush likely to announce $800 tax rebates.

There is a slew of huge bad news coming up soon. How about bankruptcies for the companies guaranteeing those bad bonds?

Matt Lauer's proposed fix, start lying about the economy.

UPDATE - My brother sends me what he calls a great blog which has this:
An honest politician would tell the country the truth. The era of cheap oil, easy credit and spending more than you earn is over. America cannot exist with 70% of its economy based on consumers spending at the mall. We will actually have to rebuild our manufacturing base and that means we will have to rebuild our infrastructure. We can no longer be 16th in the world in Broadband Diffusion, 26th in the world in 12th grade science scores and pay our teachers like they were flipping hamburgers.
More on the middle-class being hurt worst last year.

Biggest drop in home-building in 27 years.

Salon.com: When can we get our checks?

Another shoe teetering on the verge of dropping - AMBAC.

'We are always at war with Eastasia'


Someone "off the record" briefed the media that Iran almost started a war with their aggressive actions in the Gulf of Hormuz. Front page news and all over the usual suspects pages and airwaves while Bush was visiting the Middle East.

Those damn Iranian rubber boats were threatening our battleships!

How does it look now?

Turns out it was greatly exaggerated to hype the Iran threat connected with Bush's foreign policy mission to a credulous media.

I just love those "off the record" Republican guys at the Department of Defense.

'Sputtering and fuming' in Fort Bend


Must be the ten little dwarfs debating in Richmond-Rosenberg over who is tall enough to replace Representative Nick Lampson. Hal was at the debate to which Shelley-Shelley-My Belly Sekula Gibbs arrived late, as usual.

I found out she was named after Shell Oil. Grand Oil Party is in her blood apparently. Can we blame them for her money to run those crazy radio ads and all those large billboards?

Last Final Corrupt Act Before Rosenthal Leaves?


Republican Texas Supreme Court Justice David Medina and his wife are in financial trouble. Their house was in foreclosure and had tax liens. Solution? His wife set fire to the house and waited outside with her son for the fire department. She got a little carried away with the accelerant and it spread to three alarms and also damaged a neighbor's place. As suspicion fell on her the judge started hiding and tampering with the evidence. He got caught and he and his wife were indicted.

How does disgraced Harris County Attorney Chuck Rosenthal get involved in this? He has refused to prosecute and will move to dismiss the indictments.

Is this one last favor for the Republican Party of Texas?

Grand jury members are pretty steamed about this.
A grand jury handed up the indictments despite objections from Rosenthal's office. In a rare move for a body that typically operates in secrecy, two grand jury members Thursday night publicly denounced Rosenthal's unwillingness to prosecute as politically motivated....

"I've just never seen anything like the vigor with which these two defendants were defended by the Harris County District Attorney's Office," Dorrell said. "It was theater of the absurd. We knew before we handed the indictment down that the district attorney was going to refuse to prosecute, but we did it anyway."

....Medina, a former state district judge in Houston, was Gov. Rick Perry's general counsel from January to November 2004, when Perry appointed him to fill a vacancy on the Supreme Court, which hears only civil cases. He was elected in 2006 and is not up for re-election until 2012.
Chuck Rosenthal has had his ethics and judgement repeatedly questioned. Presently he is not running for reelection and is under investigation because of his emails containing love notes to his secretary, porn and racist material, and illegal campaign activities. When he was prosecuting cases it came out that he made up evidence and refused to give evidence to the defense. Many attorneys for years have questioned his judgement.

The GOP replacement candidates promise to do better than Chuck. What the Hell else can they say?

Kuffman has more.

Thursday, January 17, 2008

Vote in Pasadena Saturday


If you haven't safe voted early, Saturday is the day to choose your mayor. Riggs has enthusiastic supporters, can they overcome the experienced Isbell machine and the history of Pasadena returning the same families to office? Riggs held a meet and greet.
"We had people come in that I've never met and I got to visit with them. We probably had between 200 and 300 people show up with very minimal advertising, and I was able to talk to people about some of my plans for the city, which include fixing the things that are falling down around us and continuing on with the capital improvement program that John Manlove started. Overall, it went very well. We were very happy with the turnout, and we think it's a good indicator" he said.
Pat has been working for the Red Cross on local fires and I am about to head down to Clear Lake to meet some people who want to be delegates to the Democratic Party Convention. At work I kept managing to lose stuff that wasn't mine (actually the Honors students probably stole them.)

Huckabee goes after the squirrel eating vote


Huckabee confesses while in college he regularly fried squirrel in his popcorn popper.

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John Edwards is the Most Electable


The proof is in polls from Oklahoma and Ohio. OK, this is going to be a rant.

In Oklahoma John Edwards performs 18 to 26% better than Hillary Clinton depending on who the GOP candidate is. Obama gets even more blown out of the water. Bush won Oklahoma in 2004 by 31% and by 22% in 2000.
If the two winners of the 2008 New Hampshire primary are paired up together, Clinton would lose by roughly the same margin as Kerry did in 2004. The Democrats would not be making any sort of electoral progress.

Democrats tend to get swept in Southern states but a John Edwards candidacy puts these states in play. John Edwards was chosen as the VP in 2004 partly because of his strength in the south but obviously that did not help. The Democrats are just going to have to elect him as the nominee if they want to compete in the South.
In Ohio pretty much the same results, only Edwards wins Ohio against McCain and Huckabee. Obama or Clinton go down to defeat. Some of the Democrats versus the Republicans results from the Ohio poll:
Edwards: 47 percent
McCain: 40 percent
Undecided: 13 percent

Huckabee: 45 percent
Clinton: 43 percent
Undecided: 11 percent

McCain: 46 percent
Clinton: 42 percent
Undecided: 12 percent

McCain: 45 percent
Obama: 42 percent
Undecided: 14 percent

Obama: 44 percent
Romney: 38 percent
Undecided: 18 percent
Obama or Clinton would be the John Kerry of 2008 in the South and in the battleground toss-up states.

Democrats in Texas do not realize this as Edwards remains in third in the latest Texas Democratic primary poll. Current and last month results.
Clinton 46% (51%)
Obama 28% (17%)
Edwards 14% (15%)
I can see the Democratic establishment has gotten in the habit and seems to like to lose but can someone explain to me what the average Democrat in Texas sees in repeating the same John Kerry mistake in 2008?

So far all I've heard is it's historical or that Obama and Hillary will grow on people. It was historical when the Democrats had a losing female vice-president. Being historical doesn't get the job done. By this time Hillary has done all the growing on people she is likely to do.

I am sure Obama is going to be torn up in the Republican lying buzz-saw. I have already seen CNN and Fox News running a few spots with the wrong color filter on clips about Obama where he looks like he has jaundice and needs a shave and looks the closest thing to a terrorist.

If you want to have a much easier time to take the presidency and elect more Democrats vote for Edwards. If you want to make an historical statement but that could lose vote for Hillary or Obama.

Liberal Fascism in LOLCat form


A number of people linked to this Jon Swift article. Some conservatives complained to Google that it was too high up in the rankings when people searched for Liberal Fascism. Google removed it from the results. They claimed it was a googlebomb. That is wrong. A real googlebomb is like this - Liberal Fascism.

The Chron today decided to dignify Goldberg with an outlet for one of his saner rants. I won't link. He calls on Obama to be civil and respectful and not uppity.

Here is a real review of Jonah Goldberg's alternative X-men tome at The American Prospect.

Jonah Goldberg's Bizarro History - David Neiwert
In his new book, Goldberg has decided to dream up fascists on the left rather than acknowledge the fact that the real American fascists have been lurking in the right's closet for lo these many years.
Sadly No seems to have caught on that Goldberg was reading science fiction and alternative history for his research instead of real history. On Goldberg's blog he mentions British fascists as Silver Shirts. They were only called that in a Harry Turtledove alternative history series.

Jon Stewart interview video.

What are the Middle Class concerned about?


DMI looks at Google adwords and finds it is the economy and the presidential candidates. They are very worried about sub-prime rates and tax reform.
For today's middle class, however, economic worries encompass more than just housing and taxes. Other popular search terms included ads that linked to policy analysis on Head Start, minimum wage policy (about 270,000 searchers have seen DMI's ad so far), and immigration reform. The Google statistics show a middle class searching (both literally and figuratively -- excuse the pun) for comprehensive policy to make higher education more affordable, make health care more accessible, and protect workers' rights. Not only are thousands of Americans Google-searching for information on SCHIP and the Employee Free Choice Act -- yes, thousands are actually typing in the search term "employee free choice act" -- but Americans are real-life-searching for these policies, too.
You can check out the score cards on politicians to see how often they vote for the middle class. For Texas representatives - Gene Green gets B's, Nick Lampson gets C's, Ciro Rodriguez gets an A+, and all Texas Republicans get F's. The Republicans may be trying to improve their scores with the Democrats in charge and an election coming up just from my looking at a few votes. Maybe Gene Green and Nick Lampson will take the hint and try to improve their scores.

I am going to add a widget to the left so visitors can search bills and our legislators to see how they are doing in supporting the middle-class.

Adding Kucinich to the debate


Democracy Now devoted its show to re-running important questions and responses from the Democratic Nevada Debate and adding Dennis Kucinich to the responses.

I thought that was great and Dennis presented an alternative view. Not the same three Democratic candidates with no major issues separating them.

Unfortunately Dennis seemed to spend most of his time attacking John Edwards. I am not sure if that is because Edwards is the most progressive of the other candidates - cutting into Dennis's position - or if it is Dennis feels Edwards is unauthentic.

Enough already, John Edwards worked for a hedge fund, I get it. Dennis can be annoying. I suppose this proves once again that attacks by candidates hurt both candidates.

Listen or watch here or read the transcript.

Wednesday, January 16, 2008

The nation wants a new direction


One of Dan Froomkin's comprehensive blog posts of the latest White House connected news.

To which I respond, "No sh*t, Sherlock."

The Shaggy Dog Story from Alice Texas


Rick Casey has the details of the mayor of Alice and her twin sister stealing a Shih Tzu. Maybe I should say allegedly. Texas has a million stories, this is one.

Part one of the story is here.

Worst. Moderators. Ever.


I ended up writing an email to Hardball and the MSNBC president asking Chris Matthews to shut up, quit developing man crushes on macho candidates, quit dissing the women, and grow up. Check Media Matters for more.

Well, Chris was much better behaved yesterday. Unfortunately, the rest of the MSNBC team stepped up their inanity to make it the clown network.

EzraKlein at The American Prospect comments on the worst moderation ever, "It's not moderation. It's trivialization. 28 minutes in, there's not been a question about any issue, any cause, any problem." He also links to Matthew Yglesias's review of Tim Russert as the leader of the clowns on Sunday political talk. On this debate Matthew writes: "I suppose the trouble with this debate is that while it was very annoying when the moderates were focused on inane trivia, once they moved to substance it turned out that the candidates don't really have large disagreements on the issues."

Susie Madrek agrees about the quality, or rather the lack of quality, of the moderation.
The one good thing is they’ve all gone on the record about getting all combat troops out of Iraq within a year.

Now that it’s over, I can’t help but notice that the post-debate bobblehead chatter doesn’t mention Edwards at all, nor did the cameras show anyone but Hillary and Obama shaking hands with the audience. I mean, it’s weird - he’s tied in the polls and yet he’s the Invisible Man. Or maybe not so weird, considering this is MSNBC and they’re owned by G.E., who brings good things to life - and then drops bombs on them.
Journalist Josh Marshall: "10:43 ... I think I may remember this debate as the one where the candidates refused to take Tim Russert seriously no matter how serious he tried to seem." 10:55 PM ... Russert to Edwards: Was It Appropriate for you to talk to Musharraf like I do?

A journalism professor asks Tim Russert will you pledge to ask these questions to Republicans?

They perhaps disagree with my assessment of Chris Matthews yesterday in comments from the peanut gallery: "Judging from his immediate post debate remarks, Chris Mathews doesn't seem to know what much of anything is." More from Matthew Yglesias, Democrats win out over trivia, agree on major issues.

At the Moderate Voice: Clinton most experienced, improves each debate, tells lies as well as Bill.

Taylor Marsh: "every time Clinton spoke she was impassioned about what she wanted to do and her plans to get it done."

My take - All of the Democrats won, MSNBC lost.

Turning away from MSNBC for a moment, Greenwald has a response from a CNN journalist about his adoring coverage of McCain.

UPDATES -
Kucinich was not in the debate following a Nevada Supreme Court ruling an hour before the debate. They ruled his invitation, later rescinded by MSNBC, was not a valid contract.

In my briefly watching Fox News last night, they did not appear to be favoring any GOP candidate in Michigan. As the Republican Party network they repeated mentioned that the Democratic Party removed all of Michigan's delegates to their convention. They did not mention the Republican Party had removed half of the Michigan delegates.

David Corn in Mother Jones - They all looked like they needed a nap.

Focus Group: Edwards wins debate. Media ignores. Edwards also received less air time.

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New Hampshire Recount Underway


Democrat Dennis Kucinich has paid $27,000 to Gardner's office to start the re-count. Election officials tell WBZ-TV that the recount could take up to a month....

Kucinich has asked that the re-count start with Manchester ballots and spread out from there to other Hillsborough County precincts. He can stop the re-count and get a refund for the balance of the costs. To re-count the entire state would cost him about $70,000.

Houston's News Source Featuring Racist Rush


I can't believe how bad KTRH 740 AM has gotten lately after their still good morning news and before their late night Coast-to-Coast weirdness. The highlight of their becoming the racist conservative station is, of course, Rush Limbaugh. The other day, Monday, I noticed how Rush managed to throw in as many references to "Spade" and "Ho" as possible in a rant against Barack "Hussein" "Osama/Obama." Media Matters noted this as well:
"For all of her [Clinton's] BS about being a victim and piling on, Obama is holding his own against both of them [Bill and Hillary Clinton], doing more than his share of the 'spadework,' maybe even gaining ground at the moment, using not only the spade, ladies and gentlemen. But when he finishes with the spade in the garden of corruption planted by the Clintons, he turns to the hoe. And so the spadework and his expertise, using a hoe. He's faring well."
I suggest the alternatives of NPR 88.7, see what weirdness is playing on KPFT 90.1, or trying out the CNN Radio News at 650 AM. I can only hope KTRH 740 starts getting "niggardly" listeners from Houston.

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Why I'm Still Voting For Edwards


Eli Dansky On Yahoo Opinion:
Whether the eventual nominee is Edwards, Clinton, or Obama, I will, in the end, vote for whoever it is. No matter how watered down the proposal, no matter how grim the prospect of ticket splitting across the country, anything close to Universal Health Care or true engagement with the catastrophic threat of global warming, or a true acknowledgment of the disaster of imperial adventure, will be a revolution.

But we do not have to settle for watered down. The candidacy of John Edwards offers the opportunity to take the Bush backlash and translate it into a mandate for more than just change. I want more than just change, I want progress, and I believe it's there to be had. That's why I'll be voting for Edwards on February 5th. It's not about race, gender, or symbolism. It's about ideas, ideals, and principle.
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Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Texas Yellow Rose Peace Bus Destroyed By Fire


Yes, the fire was of suspicious origin. The peace bus had been taking Iraq Veterans Against the War around the country to speak out against the war.
Owner~Operator~Driver (and Veteran) Jim Goodnow pulled into a South Jersey Truck Stop, to catch a 3 or 4 hour nap. Jim saw, in retrospect, some suspicious activity outside the bus, and about 20 minutes later, the entire engine compartment, and back of the bus was engulfed in flames.
Donations can be send to Jim who has a video message here.

NeW hAmpShIRE rECOunT


"Send lawyers, peace and money."

I guess getting tired of the election, Amy and Kim are thinking this for 2008.

Pointing you elsewhere


The 1920's Credit Bubble. The more things change.... I'll just point you there and let you read it.

The Texas progressive bloggers are endorsing some candidates but I'll also point you to someone else on that.

Texas Goings On


You know that Nick Lampson has drawn not one Republican trying to pick him off but ten? Maybe that is why none of his mailings sound much like a Democrat. He could be trying to get lost in the crowd.

It is hard to believe the Republicans in this race. Every single one of them has decided the biggest single issue facing our country are those pesky Mexicans who have been here for years and that they keep hiring. "Oh, please let me stop me before I hire another one. We have other dark complexions that will work cheap." I guess Manlove won't be emphasizing his Mexican heritage in this race.

Talton and Manlove have signs up in Pasadena and seem to be counting on familiarity to get in a runoff. Pete Olson stood out in a recent gathering as the one who opened with a strong anti-abortion pitch rather than anti-immigrant. All of them were also staunch anti-income taxers. You can't get them to agree on anything they are pro-about but the Republican party stays together on everything they are against. They are so busy anti-ing on other stuff they forgot they are also anti-gay which had been the big issue.

But maybe they didn't forget the sexual attractiveness issue. One candidate seemed to have a crush on Nick Lampson.
Dunbar even praised Lampson as she asserted that Republicans need a strong conservative to beat him. "He's very charismatic, has not burned a lot of bridges and presents well."
Moving On, You now have the opportunity to get cancer in Pasadena bars and the bars hope you appreciate it.

The owner of the Pasadena Citizen has filed suit against the Fort Bend Now owner. Fort Bend Now is the one of the few sites that is an effective popular online local news site. The Houston Community Newspapers said they had a non-compete agreement with the owner. Personally, I find many judges like me don't hold with non-compete agreements and Fort Bend is not Houston.

Democrats and Republicans agree to let the Harris County GOP possibly break the law and remove Rosenthal's name from the ballot. After his emails became an issue in the D.A. race Rosenthal withdrew three minutes before the deadline but did not have his statement notarized or use the correct wording.

Dennis Kucinich supporters buzzing Stephenville.

People are upset with acting Pasadena Mayor Douglass. He used a robocall endorsement for Isbell in the mayor's race after he promised to remain neutral. Ralph Riggs is too polite to be properly pissed.
Riggs said the timing of Douglass' phone call endorsing Isbell was questionable.

"This occurred in the middle of the day and, coming from the mayor of Pasadena in the middle of the day, people are going to think it was a call from City Hall," Riggs said. In addition, Riggs said, Douglass was not straightforward when he said his earlier neutrality pledge pertained only to the December election.

"He sat right here (at the council table) and said he wouldn't endorse anyone, period," Riggs said.
The Texas Democratic Party leadership is proving as bad as Tom Craddick and the DLC. A "full voting member of the SDEC was denied the simple right and courtesy of being able to present a motion and state his case for his motion." The motion was on supporting campaign finance reform. It looks like I am going to have to go to the Texas Convention to throw out the present leadership. More here from Perry
All the Presidential candidates are talking change -- the easiest change of all being the discarding of a state party establishment of sycophants, toads, and fools. Actually, it is a good thing to be on the fringe of a party so badly run as ours in this state.

It makes the housecleaning more obvious and vital, for one thing.
And here from Eye on Williamson: "The real story from the SDEC, however, was the lackluster fundraising of the state party." This was from Democratic Party leadership that got elected by promising they were great at fund-raising.

David Van Os, although not running in 2008 because of a promise to his kids, is still working for progressive Texas. Reforming the Texas Democratic Party is an excellent place to start.

Get ready to rumble March 4th. I would safe (early) vote earlier but come to the caucus at 7 the night of March 4. Also urge our state to have paper ballots for a really safe vote.

Why to support Edwards?


Looking at a collection of headlines he is pissing the right people off. He has about the entire collection of public conservatives hating his guts.

Zappa2004 also reminded me of the reason I posted earlier - Edwards is the strongest Dem candidate.

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Monday, January 14, 2008

Good-bye The Best American Erotica


Susie Bright explains why. Link from Crooks and Liars. Part of the explanation:
The short story, and its tender home, the "collection," are on life support. Erotica is in its new unfortunate "Harold Robbins" phase, and is largely formulaic. There are dozens of erotic anthologies turned out at great speed for nickels and dimes. The feeling that we were breaking down doors has been replaced with authors desperate to buy a few hinges for their own sanity.

I read what Stephen King's essay "What ails the short story?" last fall, and it is exactly true for erotica:
It’s tough for writers to write (and editors to edit) when faced with a shrinking audience. Once, in the days of the old Saturday Evening Post, short fiction was a stadium act; now it can barely fill a coffeehouse and often performs in the company of nothing more than an acoustic guitar and a mouth organ. If the stories felt airless, why not? When circulation falters, the air in the room gets stale.
Well, how do other writers feel about that? Isn't King an exception?

Writers know that that the short form is elemental to our craft, it's the foundation of storytelling— but without readers, where do we go? We can only talk to ourselves for so long.

Every long-running series and popular author (including King) has seen their sales contract or collapse in the last fifteen years. When I look at the exhaustive book tour itineraries I went on the 90s, I see that less than 1 out of 10 places I visited is still in operation. Imagine being a cook and watching nearly all the restaurants close except Burger King. That's how it feels.

Don't people still read for pleasure?

Book reading is not in vogue any longer, it's eccentric. No one would even bother to have an obscenity fight over text, because so few people would be in "danger" of reading it.

If I go to a supermarket in any big American city, and ask my fellow shoppers, "Do you know where a bookstore is?" most of them will offer an apology and say they have no idea. A few will admit they haven't read a book since they were last in school, as a requirement.
Science fiction writer Ursula K. Le Guin also writes on the alleged death of reading now in the new Harper's - "Staying Awake: Notes on the Alleged Decline of Reading." This is not online.

There is also the quickly thinning ranks of full-time newspaper book reviewers, or even book sections, mentioned in this fall article in CJR.

While you weren't looking


It looks like Nevada is turning into a dead heat.
Barack Obama: 32 percent
Hillary Clinton: 30 percent
John Edwards: 27 percent

John McCain: 22 percent
Rudy Giuliani: 18 percent
Mike Huckabee: 16 percent
Mitt Romney: 15 percent
Fred Thompson: 11 percent
Ron Paul: 6 percent
Duncan Hunter: 1 percent
Guess I am going to have to go instruct the people how to caucus in March when the Democratic race here will still be on.

Voters starting to recognize the phony


The terrible movie critic and worse pundit Michael Medved states the voters and the new Republican objection to Mitt Romney, he's unelectable because of his phoniness.. He does worse than any other GOP candidate against Obama or Clinton. (Of course, Edwards does better than either Obama or Clinton against the GOP candidates but this never gets mentioned.)

McCain is the only GOP candidate who is essentially tied with Clinton and Obama. The media loves McCain and his fake "straight talk express." Still, I admit he or Huckabee or Paul may be the best of a bad lot.


Obama rising


Obama is getting a lot of Red State endorsements from politicians the last few days. He also got the Kerry endorsement for whatever that is worth. That would not be happening if those people thought Hillary Clinton had the nomination. It is risky for them to make an endorsement against the front runner. Another factor in play is that they think Obama would do better in their Red states.

Would experienced politicians be cutting Clinton if they did not think they could kill her campaign?

Edwards supporters lean toward Obama but most are taking a wait until super duper primary day to see if Edwards can go to the convention as a kingmaker or a compromise candidate.