Friday, January 18, 2008


Could be a long hard one. Demographics are starting to indicate it could be a decades long recession for the housing market.
About to wreak havoc on the housing market are the 78 million American baby boomers who will “retire, relocate, and eventually withdraw from the housing market,” according to report authors Dowell Myers, a professor of urban planning and demography in the School of Policy, Planning and Development at the University of Southern California, and SungHo Ryu, an associate planner with the Southern California Association of Governments.

Using demographic data to show that individuals in their mid-60s tend to sell more often than buy, the authors contend that when boomers — a “dominant force in the housing market” — start reaching the age of 65 in the year 2011, a market shift will occur. Some retirees will be looking to downsize, others will relocate to warmer climes, while others will move to nursing homes, says Mr. Myers. As they transition out of the housing market or look to sell their homes, in some states there will be “more homes available for sale than there are buyers for them.”

...The authors suggest that to combat the boomer generational trend, local communities need to limit overbuilding of new housing, put measures into place to retain the elderly in the community and attract young households and immigrant households to local neighborhoods.
Krugman - "I suspect that it’s already too late to prevent a recession."

Bush likely to announce $800 tax rebates.

There is a slew of huge bad news coming up soon. How about bankruptcies for the companies guaranteeing those bad bonds?

Matt Lauer's proposed fix, start lying about the economy.

UPDATE - My brother sends me what he calls a great blog which has this:
An honest politician would tell the country the truth. The era of cheap oil, easy credit and spending more than you earn is over. America cannot exist with 70% of its economy based on consumers spending at the mall. We will actually have to rebuild our manufacturing base and that means we will have to rebuild our infrastructure. We can no longer be 16th in the world in Broadband Diffusion, 26th in the world in 12th grade science scores and pay our teachers like they were flipping hamburgers.
More on the middle-class being hurt worst last year.

Biggest drop in home-building in 27 years. When can we get our checks?

Another shoe teetering on the verge of dropping - AMBAC.

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